The Campaign Report — Dems pin midterm hopes on Senate

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday leading up to November’s election. 

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Dem Senate candidates prove resilient

Democrats are hoping that their challengers and incumbents in a handful of Senate races — plus their impressive fundraising hauls — will notch them over the finish line in November, in what has already been considered a challenging political environment for the party.

Democrats are facing unquestionable headwinds: President Biden continues to suffer low approval ratings and two polls out this week show voters are not enthusiastic about a 2024 presidential bid. On top of that, inflation has increased more than nine percent from last year. And there’s a general precedent that the president’s party generally suffers some losses in the midterms. 

But as The Hill’s Julia Manchester writes, Democrats are feeling optimistic about their prospects among several Senate candidates who are raking in large sums in the second quarter fundraising of this year and as news reports or past comments dog several Republican campaigns.

Among some of the Senate candidates who could stand to gain right now are Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), as well as Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), running in the Keystone State, among others.

In Georgia: Warnock more than doubled Walker’s second quarter fundraising for 2022, posting an eye-popping more than $17.2 million compared to Republican challenger Herschel Walker’s nearly $6.2 million. Reporting from last month that Walker had three children who were previously unknown to the public despite the fact that the former football star is a critic of absentee fathers has dogged his campaign. Plus, a new poll out by the AARP’s Georgia chapter shows Warnock edging past Walker 50 percent to 47 percent respectively, though that’s within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

In Nevada: Cortez Masto reported on Thursday an impressive second-quarter haul of over $7.5 million, according to The Nevada Independent; fundraising figures have not yet been released by former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt’s (R) campaign. A poll released on Wednesday by KLAS TV/The Hill/Emerson College also found that the Nevada incumbent edged past Laxalt in a head-to-head matchup (44 percent to 41 percent respectively and just outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.) Some of his past comments, including one in which he suggested Black people were to blame regarding gun violence, have also made headlines.

In Pennsylvania: Fetterman this week posted an impressive $11 million — a record for any fundraising quarter for the Pennsylvania lieutenant governor. Oz’s campaign has not announced his figures for the latest quarter. Fetterman’s campaign has attacked his Republican challenger over his ties to the state, the latest of which has included an ad and an airplane banner trolling Oz. And polling in recent weeks shows the Pennsylvania lieutenant governor leading his Republican challenger.  

“Republicans are not exactly sending their best,” one Democratic strategist told Julia. “Their lineup this cycle looks like a who’s who of ‘why him?’”

There’s still several months until the November midterms, meaning that the dynamics of the upcoming Senate races could play out differently soon. Some are also questioning if Democratic challengers can pull ahead in November despite rising inflation and Biden’s low numbers.

“They come with very real vulnerabilities,” Republican strategist Doug Heye told Julia, regarding some of the Senate GOP candidates. “The question is can they overcome it, and will the atmosphere allow that, too. Is running against Joe Biden at 9.1 percent inflation enough? And it may be just given how bad his numbers are.”  

Trump on 2024: ‘I’ve already made that decision’

Former President Trump has already determined whether he’ll run in 2024, adding to growing anticipation that he’ll likely announce a presidential bid soon.

He told New York Magazine in an interview published on Thursday, “Well, in my own mind, I’ve already made that decision, so nothing factors in anymore. In my own mind, I’ve already made that decision.”

“Do I go before or after? That will be my big decision,” he added.

Will Trump face primary challengers?: No other Republicans have announced whether they will be vying for the presidency in the next presidential election, though names like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Pence have already been floated.

But Trump is already betting that he would win if he sought a 2024 bid, telling the magazine “I feel very confident that, if I decide to run, I’ll win.”

But it’s not necessarily clear if Republicans would be sold on a third Trump bid. A New York Times/Siena College poll out this week found that close to half of Republican primary voters are interested in someone other than Trump in 2024.  

POLL WATCH

In Georgia: A poll out from the Georgia chapter of the AARP finds that two Georgia incumbents — Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) — are edging past their respective challengers. Warnock received 50 percent of support from likely voters compared to Republican challenger Herschel Walker (R) at 47 percent, which is within the poll’s margin of error. Kemp meanwhile received 52 percent support compared to Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams (D) at 45 percent.

In Texas: A poll from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) receiving 49 percent among likely voters compared to former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), who received 44 percent.

In Washington state: A SurveyUSA poll finds incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) leading Republican candidate Tiffany Smiley 51 percent to 33 percent.

GOP courts Hispanic voters

Republicans are continuing to actively court Hispanic voters in an effort to win over a number of competitive House races this cycle.

Hispanic Democrats in Congress outnumber Hispanic Democrats 4 to 1, but the GOP has been rapidly recruiting candidates across the country. The recruitment has played the biggest role in Texas, but the party is also recruiting candidates in other states like Virginia and Oregon.

The National Republican Congressional Committee says it has recruited a total of 102 Hispanic candidates in this cycle.

The Hill’s Rafael Bernal, Emily Brooks, and Mike Lillis report that the Republicans’ approach poses a danger to Democrats in at least a dozen districts this election cycle.

“It couldn’t be a starker contrast between Republicans and Democrats as we engage and do outreach to minority voters, and specifically the Hispanic community,” said Danielle Alvarez, communications director for the GOP.

The GOP’s effort to recruit Hispanic voters is a part of the party’s broader strategy to appeal to minority voters, including those in the Black and AAPI communities.

On Thursday, the Republican National Committee launched the Republican Civics Initiative (RCI), which is an initiative that is aimed at helping immigrants prepare for the naturalization test.

The first course starts Thursday in Doral, Fla., at the RNC Hispanic Community Center. Additional courses will be held in battleground states across the country, including Texas, Georgia, Nevada, California and Pennsylvania. 

AD WATCH

The Democratic National Committee launched a new six-figure ad buy on Thursday that highlights comments from Republicans on the idea of a nationwide abortion ban. The 30-second spot, titled “They Said It Themselves” is slated to air on states across the country and is a part of the DNC’s Defend Choice Week.

The pro-Biden group Build Back Better launched a six-figure ad buy in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania touting the passage and signing of the Safer Communities Act. The 30-second spot is titled “Bottom Line” and follows Biden’s signing of the legislation earlier this week.