This week: Senate races toward ObamaCare repeal vote

All eyes will be on the Senate this week as Majority Leader Mitch McConnell tries to pass a bill to repeal and replace ObamaCare with no room for error. 

The Kentucky Republican is starting the week several votes short of the 50 he’ll need, with both conservatives and moderates demanding changes.

Sen. Dean Heller (Nev.) became the fifth GOP senator to say he could not support the bill in its current form, citing concerns over Medicaid and a dramatic reshaping of the program.

“This bill is not the answer. It’s simply not the answer,” he said at a press conference in Nevada. “This bill would mean a loss of coverage for millions of Americans.”

Heller is the most vulnerable GOP senator up for reelection in 2018 in an otherwise favorable map for his party. 

He’s also one of a handful of moderates from states that expanded Medicaid under ObamaCare. They’ve signaled concern that the GOP proposal would leave their many of their constituents unable to afford health insurance.

{mosads}Moderate GOP Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) are expected to try to remove a provision cutting off federal funding for Planned Parenthood for a year out of the bill. 

“I do not like the provision that eliminates federal funding for Planned Parenthood. It makes no sense to single out Planned Parenthood from all of the Medicaid providers,” Collins told reporters late last week.

They’ve both stopped short of saying they would oppose the bill over the issue.

On the other side of McConnell’s caucus, four conservatives—Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas), Ron Johnson (Wis.), Mike Lee (Utah) and Rand Paul (Ky.)—said late last week that they also couldn’t currently support the legislation.

“Currently, for a variety of reasons, we are not ready to vote for this bill, but we are open to negotiation and obtaining more information before it is brought to the floor,” the statement said. 

Conservatives want to pressure McConnell to revise the legislation and move it further to the right. Paul is widely considered to be the conservative senator most likely to vote “no,” though he’s said he’s still open to negotiations.

McConnell has stressed that any senator will be able to try to make changes to the bill, and talks will likely continue well into this week.

Before they take a final vote they’ll need to complete a vote-a-rama—a marathon session where any senator can force a vote on their proposal—according to Senate rules.

But McConnell—who is frequently credited with having one of the sharpest minds in contemporary politics—will be walking a political tightrope as he tries to cobble together divergent coalitions.

Republicans only have 52 seats. They need at least 50 senators to back the bill and Vice President Mike Pence to break a tie, meaning they can only afford to lose two GOP senators.

Any concession McConnell makes — to either his conservative block or a handful of moderates — is likely to alienate, and threaten support from the opposing side of his caucus.

“The bill will continue to change and this is going to be an ongoing negotiation until Tuesday or thereabouts where the leader will then have to file the bill on the Senate floor,” Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) told reporters late last week.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is aiming to release its analysis early this week.

Democrats are under pressure from liberals to hold Republicans’ feet to the fire by making them take politically tough amendment votes, as well as doing everything in their power to delay the GOP healthcare bill.

Democrats can’t block the bill on their own, but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) voiced confidence that they could win over the three Republicans needed to kill the bill.

“Our whole focus if McConnell will bring this up right before July Fourth is to get three votes against the motion to proceed, and we think we have a damn good chance,” he told Pod Save America, a podcast run by former Obama administration staffers. 

Schumer added that absent being able to block the bill, “everything is on the table.”

“This is full-scale warfare. … We’re not going to be complacent or going along or business as usual,” he said.

No Democratic senator is expected to support the legislation.

After White House press secretary Sean Spicer floated Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) as a Democrat willing to work with the Republicans on their bill, a spokesman for the red-state Democrat fired back that “[there’s a] better chance of me replacing Spicer as Press Sec.” 

Immigration enforcement

The House is slated to consider a pair of immigration enforcement bills this week amid a lack of any movement on legislation to start building the U.S.-Mexico border wall promised by President Trump. 

One of the measures, known as Kate’s Law, would increase sentences for criminals who have entered the U.S. illegally multiple times. 

It’s named after Kathryn Steinle, who was shot in 2015 by a Mexican immigrant who had returned to the U.S. illegally after being convicted of an earlier crime and deported.

The other bill would punish state and local governments that limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities, also known as “sanctuary cities.”

Certain federal grants from the Justice and Homeland Security Departments would be withheld from such localities that direct law enforcement officers not to communicate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 

The measure also has a provision to ensure immigrants in the U.S. illegally who are convicted of drunk driving or charged with a serious crime are detained during their removal proceedings.

“For years, the lack of immigration enforcement and the spread of dangerous sanctuary policies have failed the American people and cost too many lives,” House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) said in a statement.

Democrats successfully beat back efforts by the GOP and the Trump administration to include funding for the border wall in the government spending package last month.

The White House’s proposed 2018 budget calls for $1.6 billion for constructing a wall along the Mexican border. It would fund 60 miles of a border wall, mostly in Texas.

Russia sanctions

Lawmakers are hoping to move legislation passed by the Senate this month to impose new sanctions on Russia before leaving for the weeklong recess.

The bill passed the Senate 98-2, but has been held up because of a provision flagged by the parliamentarian to be in violation of the constitutional requirement that all measures generating revenue must start in the House.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said late last week that the chamber is expected to conduct a do-over of the legislation that resolves the constitutional issue. 

The Senate could simply send the bill back to the House by unanimous consent or a voice vote, but it may depend on whether the two senators who voted against it the first time – Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) – go along.

House leaders say they’re eager to pass the legislation once the Senate fixes the procedural problem. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) expressed support for it last week, and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R-Calif.) said he wants to move quickly. 

“We want to get this bill cleaned up. We need Foreign Affairs to do their scrub of this legislation, which is what we do every time a bill comes over from the Senate,” Ryan said. “But Ed wants to get moving on this bill, and I support doing that.”

The New York Times reported that the Trump administration has been quietly pressuring House Republicans to water down the bill. The measure gives Congress power to review and potentially block the Trump administration from lifting sanctions on Russia. 

But Royce told The Hill that he had not heard from the White House about the legislation.

A spokesman for the House Foreign Affairs Committee didn’t rule out potential policy changes to the bill, but indicated it expects to move the legislation soon.

Once the Senate sends it back, “we’ll review it and determine the best path forward,” the spokesman said.