GOP ‘no’ votes on Cabinet won’t matter if Dems aren’t kept in line

The old line “talk is cheap” keeps loudly reverberating in my brain. This has to do with the upcoming Senate confirmation battles that President-elect Donald Trump’s nominees will soon face in the coming year.

Senators have the major and essential obligation and responsibility to provide “advice and consent.” Far too often, individual U.S. senators talk about casting a “no” vote in splendid speeches on the floor, but then forget their own words and roll over and meekly vote “yes.”

They wimp out.

The nominee who seems to be getting the most attention currently is Rex Tillerson for secretary of State.

{mosads}Some of the others are supposedly not going to get a free pass to the Cabinet either.

There will be plenty of time to analyze and predict their chances, but for now I need to comment on the confirmation process itself and some of the indispensable players.

What hasn’t been discussed or even brought up is the role of the Democratic Senate minority. They have 48 votes in the U.S. Senate; not an insignificant number. But if the Democratic Senate leadership decides to block one particular nominee or a group of nominees, can they or will they act in a united, powerful and decisive manner.

Simply put, will the Democrats deliver 48 “no” votes? Will every Democrat vote “no”?

The incoming Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), talks a good game; he makes all the right noises. But does he have the actual skill and grit to deliver 48 “no” votes?

I have the distinct impression that this question would not be asked of outgoing Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). (Party discipline is Reid’s strong suit. Remember, he got every single Democratic senator to vote for the Affordable Care Act in 2009.)

Maybe Schumer is just all show.

Even for argument’s sake, let’s assume he has the desire to deliver all 48 Democrats. There is one huge reason why some Democratic senators will stray and vote “yes.”

These Democratic senators like being senators. And they can’t continue being senators unless they are reelected.

Seven Democratic senators have one giant thing in common: They are from states which Donald Trump carried in the 2016 election.

Let’s critique those most likely to stray from the Democratic fold.

The No. 1 prospect to vote “yes” rather than “no” is Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. Some would say that a Democrat being elected from this state is in itself an aberration, but being reelected is pure fantasy.

Heitkamp has already received the Trump Tower treatment and met personally with him. Her name was actually floated around as a possible secretary of Energy.

The next Democratic vulnerable to break from the party might be Joe Manchin. The senator from West Virginia has also met with Trump. In addition, it has been speculated that he might even change parties and become an instant Republican, although he has denied this.

Third on the list of possible future “yes” votes is Joe Donnelly of Indiana. Many considered his election in 2010 to be a fluke. He had the very good fortune to face an extremely weak and self-destructive opponent. He likely won’t have that favorable situation in 2018.

No. 4 on the list of vulnerables is Jon Tester of Montana. “Yes,” I know Tester is chair of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, but if it’s a choice between his own survival and that of presenting a united party front, I’m pretty sure where he will decide to go.

After those top four, there are three other senators who could feel the heat and might surprise. They are less likely to vote “yes” and break from party leadership, but their names should be thrown in the mix: Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Bill Nelson of Florida and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania.

I’m doubtful that any of them would break, but if they see themselves in a tight race, they might just have to do the unthinkable.

One final thought: Two Democratic senators on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will have powerful and influential voices in any move to deliver the 48 as a bloc. They are senior member Ben Cardin and former Vice President nominee Tim Kaine.

There is no purpose to talk about the Republican senators who might vote “no” if the Democrats can’t deliver all 48 to “no” votes. (If that looks like that will really happen, then believe me, a future column is in store.)

Until then, the comments of Republican Sens. John McCain (Ariz.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Marco Rubio (Fla.) and James Lankford (Okla.) are of no real consequence.

The last Republican nominee for a Cabinet seat chosen by a Republican president and voted down by the Senate was Sen. John Tower of Texas. Tower was nominated by President George H.W. Bush to be secretary of Defense. The vote on March 9, 1989 was 53 against, 47 for. (In a Democratic-controlled Senate, Nancy Landon Kassebaum of Kansas was the only GOP senator to vote against her colleague from Texas.)

Let’s wait and see if there will be another John Tower.

Plotkin is a political analyst, a contributor to the BBC on American politics and a columnist for The Georgetowner.

The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.