Nate Silver: Polls could not keep up with changing demographics
FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver said Sunday that the general election polls could not keep up with America’s changing demographics.
{mosads}”It’s not simply a matter of the polls underestimating Trump,” Silver told CNN’s Brian Stelter on Reliable Sources. “It’s not catching up to the demographic changes in the country.”
While most polls showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump — and forecasts gave the former secretary of State upward of a 90 percent chance of winning the presidential election — Silver’s analysis gave Trump a better chance than any other forecast.
On Election Day, FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 29 percent chance of reaching the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency.
Silver received criticism for his election forecasts. The Huffington Post wrote an article earlier this month accusing Silver of skewing polls, sparking a tweetstorm from Silver.
“I’ve never had a fight with the side who was ahead in our forecast,” Silver said Sunday, noting that Clinton supporters were shocked at the chances he gave the Democratic nominee.
Silver said it’s not enough to detail the statistics coming from a poll — journalists must also provide context.
“When the poll’s within the margin of error, you should characterize it as a very close race,” he said.
“I think polling has to get better about describing the uncertainties inherent in the polls,” he said.
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