Poll: Trump, Clinton neck and neck in Arizona

by Jonathan Easley - 10/25/16 1:00 PM ET

Donald Trump has just a 1-point edge over Hillary Clinton in Arizona, a must-win red state that has only gone Democrat once in the last 10 presidential elections, according to a new poll released Tuesday.

{mosads}Trump, the Republican nominee, has 46 percent support to Clinton’s 45 percent, the Monmouth University survey found. Libertarian Gary Johnson takes 4 percent support, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein is at 1 percent.

That’s in line with other recent surveys of Arizona. Clinton, the Democratic nominee, holds a 1-point advantage over Trump in a RealClearPolitics average of polls.

The Clinton campaign has dispatched top surrogates, including first lady Michelle Obama, to make a play for the state, believing it’s the best shot Democrats have at expanding the electoral map.

Clinton is boosted in Arizona by support among Hispanic voters, who make up about 20 percent of the population and favor her 65 percent to 30 percent over Trump.

Trump leads, 56 percent to 35 percent, among white voters overall, with a nearly 40-point advantage among white men and white voters without a college education. The race is within the margin of error among white women and white voters with college degrees.

Clinton has opened up a 10-point advantage, 52 percent to 42 percent, among those who have already cast a ballot, while Trump leads 49 percent to 41 percent among those who say they plan to.

About 40 percent of those polled said they have already voted.

“Clinton is banking a significant advantage in Arizona’s early vote,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “Trump has to count on every other voter who says they are supporting him now to actually show up on Election Day.”

Incumbent Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is running well ahead of Trump and leads his Democratic challenger, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.), by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent.

“McCain is sitting on a decent lead, but it’s worth noting that he has won all five of his previous senate races by more than 20 points,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University poll of 401 likely voters in Arizona was conducted between Oct. 21 and 24 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

Tags Ann Kirkpatrick Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton John McCain Michelle Obama