Vulnerable NH Republican ties reelection bid to Trump

Rep. Frank Guinta is taking a different approach than other vulnerable GOP incumbents, who are keeping their party’s presidential nominee at arm’s length: He’s openly embracing Donald Trump.

The New Hampshire Republican, who has come under pressure for violating campaign finance regulations, endorsed Trump in May during his tough primary and even praised Trump’s performance during Monday’s presidential debate in a statement sent by Trump’s campaign.

{mosads}While some political observers see this as a risky general election strategy in one of House Democrats’ top target districts, others say Guinta’s alignment with Trump on veterans’ issues and the opioid crisis could be beneficial in his fourth match against former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D).

“Honestly, I think there is no risk for Congressman Guinta to be overtly attaching his face to Donald Trump’s face right here in New Hampshire,” said Scott Spradling, a former WMUR-TV political director who now operates his own consulting firm. “If it works once, I’m assuming the campaign is doubling down and hoping that it works twice in this election cycle.”

Republicans up for reelection are walking a tightrope in how they back the controversial nominee, worrying Trump will have a down-ballot drag. In the state’s critical Senate race, Sen. Kelly Ayotte has said she will support, but not endorse, the real estate mogul.

But Guinta hasn’t been afraid to convey his support for Trump. Political observers say it’s a strategy that likely helped him rally the base and defeat his primary opponent by 649 votes earlier this month.

Guinta’s campaign has been dogged by last year’s Federal Election Commission findings that he violated campaign finance laws by accepting more than $350,000 in checks from his parents, which he used as a loan to his campaign. Prominent state Republicans, including Ayotte, called on him to resign.

But Guinta hasn’t backed away since his primary and said Trump exhibited “serious leadership” at the debate.

Observers say Guinta faces a different challenge than other vulnerable Republicans. While some believe Ayotte could outperform Trump, they argue that Guinta’s race will likely hinge on Trump’s performance in the Granite State. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads by an average of 5 points.

“I do think [Guinta’s] fate, unlike Ayotte’s, rests a lot more on how Trump does in New Hampshire to this extent,” said Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire political science professor, pointing to Guinta’s lackluster fundraising as well as less enthusiasm and attention for the House race when compared to the Senate and governor’s races. “I think Guinta’s going to rise or fall with how well Trump does.”

Plus, Guinta falls in line with Trump on a host of issues, particularly veterans’ issues, which has been a pinnacle of his campaign and congressional tenure. And with the spotlight on the state’s opioid overdose crisis, some observers say Guinta’s ties to Trump on these issues could resonate with voters.

“There’s an alignment there on some issues that’s particularly strong and issues that happen to be important to Guinta,” said Wayne Lesperance, a political science professor at New England College.

But Democrats still see Trump as having an influence on vulnerable down-ballot Republicans like Guinta, even in his swing district that tilts slightly more Republican, as they try to appeal to more centrist voters.

“If they try to walk away from Donald Trump, then they alienate the Trump base voters,” Rep. Ben Ray Luján (N.M.), head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), told The Hill during an interview in his campaign office. “If they don’t walk away from Donald Trump, then they alienate every other demographic that has a negative view of Donald Trump.”

Regardless of Trump, Guinta still faces an uphill battle, with state electoral trends favoring Democrats in presidential years. Several nonpartisan election handicappers have rated the race “lean Democratic.” Shea-Porter also campaigned with Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the Granite State on Wednesday. Her campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Both Guinta and Shea-Porter are more than familiar names on the ballot. Guinta took the seat from Shea-Porter in 2010. He then lost the seat to her in 2012 and then reclaimed it from her again in 2014.

And with millions of dollars from outside groups expected to pour in, both parties see the race as winnable.

According to the Daily Kos Elections House ad reservations tracker, the DCCC is expected to drop in nearly $3 million, and there will also be contributions from Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC. For Republicans, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has reserved nearly $3.7 million, and its first buy totaling nearly $540,000 will begin next week, according to the NRCC.

The one wild card that could potentially sway the outcome is independent candidate Shawn O’Connor. The New Hampshire Democratic Party tried twice to keep O’Connor, who dropped out of the Democratic primary, off the ballot, but the state’s ballot commission ruled to have him appear.

Observers say the self-funding businessman will likely siphon some votes away from Shea-Porter, which could alter the race, especially if the margin is within a few points. WMUR reported Wednesday that O’Connor is going on the air with a “significant” television ad buy. He loaned himself $1 million last year.

“Shawn O’Connor, a Bernie Sanders-inspired Independent, who initially ran against Shea-Porter in the Democrat Primary, is beginning to run TV ads. That’s why the state Democrat Party sought and failed to remove him from the ballot,” Guinta spokesman Jay Ruais said, calling his opponent “desperate.”

Guinta has called for debates with him, Shea-Porter, O’Connor and two other third-party candidates, but Shea-Porter has declined, a sign that both campaigns are aware of the potential third-party impact. “It’s kind of a sense how Guinta can survive with a plurality as opposed to a majority,” Scala said.

National Democrats acknowledge that O’Connor’s name on the ballot “makes it a little tricky” for Shea-Porter. “But we’re watching it closely. I don’t think it will ultimately be that big of a problem, because Shea-Porter and Guinta are so well known,” Kelly Ward, DCCC executive director, told The Hill.

Public polling has been scarce, and internal polls from both parties show their respective nominees leading. The NRCC poll has Guinta up by 3 points, with O’Connor at 8 percent and Libertarian Brendan Kelly at 4 percent, while an HMP poll has Shea-Porter up 10 points, with both third-party candidates at 4 percent.

Even with the third-party element, strategists believe that, at this point, it’s a pure toss-up between Guinta and Shea-Porter.

“Considering these two are meeting for the fourth time, I would say any outcome is possible with these two,” Spradling said. “It makes it hard to predict given where we are now, and the fact that [Guinta] did survive the primary, it’s hard to write him off. It’s very unpredictable.”

Mike Lillis contributed.