McConnell: Keeping majority still ‘challenging’

A spate of recent surveys show Republican senators running strong against their Democratic opponents, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) says his party’s prospects of keeping the chamber remain dicey.

“This is a very, very challenging cycle for us, and so I don’t allow myself the luxury of getting high or getting low based on what the polls are today,” McConnell said in an interview with The Hill. “You can just stipulate that this is a knock-down, drag-out.”

{mosads}Republicans are defending 24 seats this year, compared with just 10 for Democrats. To reclaim a 51-seat majority, Democrats would need to win a net gain of five seats.

Recent polls show Republicans began the post-Labor Day sprint to the elections in a strong position, even in states the party once worried over. 

Polls released in the last few days show Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.) leading by significant margins. Democrats have canceled advertising reservations in Ohio, a sign they are losing hope in their quest to knock off Sen. Rob Portman (R).

A Marist poll conducted for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal shows Sen. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.), one of the most politically vulnerable Republicans in the nation, leading Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) by 8 points, a wider margin than any previous survey of the race.

And in Nevada, the GOP’s lone opportunity to pick up a Democratic-held seat this year, another Marist poll shows Rep. Joe Heck (R) leading former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D).

Sens. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) trail their Democratic opponents, and most Republicans privately admit those seats are likely to flip. 

But in Indiana, after early polls showed former Sen. Evan Bayh (D) leading Rep. Todd Young (R) by wide margins, Bayh has struggled over questions about whether he actually lived in the state after leaving the Senate six years ago. A Howey Politics Indiana poll released Saturday shows Bayh leading Young by a 4-point margin, giving Republicans hope that the state is not out of reach.

Still, McConnell said, the GOP’s hold on the majority is tenuous.

“It’s a very, very competitive environment,” McConnell said. “During the recess, I said [the prospect of holding the majority] was dicey, and people thought that was news.”

McConnell looked ahead to 2018, when Democrats will find themselves on defense. Of the 33 seats being contested two years from now, Democrats will be defending 25, including seats in red states like North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Indiana and West Virginia.

“Next cycle, we’re almost entirely on offense, which I like,” McConnell said.