Decoding Ben Carson’s third-party challenge

The all-important Iowa caucuses are less than 50 days away and the polls are already reflecting a tightening atop the GOP field. Donald Trump continues to steamroll ahead in national polls but, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) is rising fast. A Des Moines Register poll shows the freshman senator with a surprising lead in the Hawkeye State. Iowa will be the momentum shift some need to change their fortunes. However, others will see their political dreams turn into nightmares. One such candidate is Ben Carson.

{mosads}The famed neurosurgeon bet it all on Iowa and until recently, that strategy was paying huge dividends as the political novice catapulted to front-runner status both nationally and in Iowa. The soft-spoken retired doctor with the amazing backstory came out of nowhere  to take the GOP by storm, surpassing experienced politicians with much higher profiles. Govs. Chris Christie (N.J.) and Scott Walker (Wis.) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush all enjoyed national profiles as experienced executives and are seasoned political veterans, having each won reelection comfortably in their respective states. Still, Carson climbed over them and other politically savvy pols, reaching the zenith atop a crowded (and strong) GOP field. Yet, like so many before him, the searing heat and blinding glare of the national political spotlight proved too much. His political fortunes have shifted and with them, his grasp on the nomination is fading just as fast as his inexplicable rise.

Now, the threat of radical jihadists has taken hold and the sum of all fears is at hand and Americans are bracing for the worst. Back-to-back terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif., have left scores of innocent civilians dead, with many more wounded. Global leaders are ratcheting up the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in an attempt to stave off more carnage. The Obama administration continues to struggle with an effective response to the multiple attacks, which only deepens the nation’s anxiety. These latest developments have led to a shift in the overall climate and tenor of the campaign, with an emphasis now on terror and security. This shift finds Carson woefully unprepared for the occasion: his campaign reeling, his poll numbers precipitously dropping. His recent trip to Jordan, to visit Syrian refugee camps, was an effort to shore up his foreign policy bona fides. However, the damage is done. Cruz’s rising poll numbers in Iowa and Trump’s call for a ban on Muslims to the U.S., in the wake of the recent attacks, cements their places atop the all-important Iowa hierarchy.

Iowa’s robust evangelical base was tailor-made for a Carson run. Long before the other candidates made ad buys, the Carson campaign was running paid ads introducing himself to Iowans and showcasing his religious orthodoxy to a sympathetic and politically aligned electorate. Yet, because of several glaring missteps and a changing political landscape, the one-time front-runner is now on the outside looking in. Recognizing the end is near, Carson’s recent warning of a third-party challenge was in fact public recognition that his candidacy is in its final stages, yet cloaked under the guise of a threat to GOP leaders. During the recent CNN debate, he quickly changed course on an independent run, but make no mistake — a Carson candidacy will continue to struggle to find traction on this new foreign policy terrain.

An October Des Moines Register poll showed Carson with an overall favorability rating of 84 percent, 14 points higher than his closest competitor. The poll went on to show his strength with evangelical voters, which has been noted throughout the campaign. However, two glaring weaknesses that stood out, and are now coming to fruition, were a lack of firm support (15 percent compared to 32 percent for Trump) and voters seeing his lack of foreign policy experience as a major shortcoming. Combine Cruz’s continued rise along with Trumps support hardening and add in the omnipresent threat of terrorism, and Carson is facing the perfect storm.

Ben Carson’s recent threat to bolt the party were undoubtedly borne out of frustration and desperation caused by the myriad of challenges facing the candidate. However, such a threat will not change his fortunes or reverberate throughout the GOP in much the same way that a Donald Trump independent run would. Carson, unlike Trump, lacks the financial might to mount a viable third-party challenge and his support among the GOP faithful is not as strong as the real estate mogul’s. Clearly, the doctor knows this and like any good medical professional, he recognizes it is time to pull the plug.

Ham is a national political analyst and author of the bestselling book, “The GOP Civil War: Inside the Battle for the Soul of the Republican Party.” Listen to him on P.O.T.U.S. radio on SiriusXM, channel 124. Follow him on Twitter @EKH2016.