Markos Moulitsas: No escape from Trump

The establishment GOP is in a veritable panic over the very real possibility that Donald Trump will win the party’s nomination. 

“It would be devastating to our attempts to grow our majority and would cost us seats,” said Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio), part of the leadership protecting endangered House Republicans. “[Trump] would cost us seats. There are people that couldn’t win if he was our nominee.” 

{mosads}His boss, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden (R-Ore.), was equally direct: “This is not what we’re about as a party, and this is not what we’re about as a country and we cannot yield to this. [A Trump nomination] puts, certainly, competitive seats in jeopardy. We’ll have a much more difficult time.”

Tip O’Neill once said that all politics are local, but that’s less true in today’s highly partisan environment. National trends increasingly affect down-ballot races, and Trump’s outsized persona certainly promises a big impact on every contest in 2016. 

“The correlation between presidential votes and House votes is higher today than it’s ever been in American history,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla), who ran the NRCC during the 2006 cycle. 

So what’s a panicked GOP to do about its Trump problem, when every direct attack against the billionaire businessman only makes him stronger? 

There’s the White Knight scenario, where Republicans marshal a brand-new candidate to consolidate the anti-Trump forces. Mitt Romney’s name is making the rounds, and he himself seems to be fueling such talk by taking an increasingly confrontational tone against Trump. 

But it’s too late for Romney, or any other non-candidate, to get on the ballot in many states.

The problem for establishment Republicans is that while Trump may only be in the mid-30s in polling (around the same level as Bernie Sanders, on the Democratic side), there’s no consensus on who should be appointed as the anti-Trump. 

According to the latest polling composite from Huffington Post, the establishment candidates in the field (Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio) combined take less than 25 percent of national GOP support. Consolidate that whole crowd and you’re not much closer to unseating Trump. 

The religious right candidates (Ted Cruz, Ben Carson and Rick Santorum) come in at another 25 percent, and there is zero overlap between their supporters and that of the establishment crowd. 

Zombie Ronald Reagan himself couldn’t ride to the rescue of this motley bunch. 

Which brings us to a brokered convention scenario. 

To garner the nomination, a candidate needs a majority of the party’s delegates, or 1,237. All early states allocate delegates proportionally, and while some later states are winner-take-all, it wouldn’t be surprising to see party leaders try to change allocation rules if it’ll slow Trump’s march to a majority. Throw in 168 unpledged superdelegates and you have a recipe for the first meaningful convention in generations. 

Would Republicans really risk a party rift — and a Trump independent bid — to prevent him from leading their ballot? If the question is between losing the White House thanks to a divided base or losing the White House, Congress and countless other down-ballot races with Trump at the top, there isn’t much choice at all.

Either way, the GOP created this problem. It built a movement on racism, xenophobia and anti-establishment fervor, and Trump’s moment is what you get once you strip away the coded language and dog whistles. The only question is how deep down the ballot damage will go.

Moulitsas is the founder and publisher of Daily Kos.