Cummings is favorite in Maryland, says poll

by Ian Swanson - 10/16/15 7:16 AM ET

Rep. Elijah Cummings would be the immediate front-runner for Maryland’s open Senate seat if he chooses to enter the race, according to a new poll from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland.

The poll finds Cummings, the ranking Democrat on the House Select Committee on Benghazi, taking 33 percent of the vote from Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, compared to 20 percent for both Rep. Donna Edwards and Chris Van Hollen, who are in the race.

{mosads}With Cummings out of the race, Edwards wins 38 percent of the vote compared to 28 percent for Van Hollen.

Cummings is in his 10th term in Congress and is a familiar face nationally from his frequent cable television appearances.

He’s been a tough presence on both the Benghazi panel and the House Oversight and Government Reform panel, where he tangled for years with Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.).

He was also widely seen locally and nationally during coverage of riots this spring in Baltimore that broke out after the death of Freddie Gray while Gray was in police custody.

Cummings will be in the spotlight again next week when Hillary Clinton testifies before the Benghazi panel on Oct. 22. Cummings has said he will make a decision on entering the Maryland Senate race after Clinton’s appearance.

Democrats will be heavily favored to win the general election for the Senate in Maryland. The race is to succeed retiring Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D).

The poll suggests Van Hollen could be in trouble in the primary despite a funding advantage. Against Edwards, who is African-American, Van Hollen wins just 15 percent of the black vote compared to 49 percent for Edwards.

With Cummings also in the race, Edwards’s share of the African-American vote falls to just 6 percent.

Van Hollen has often been seen as a potential successor to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in the House but chose to take a rare opportunity for advancement to the Senate when Mikulski announced she would retire.

A campaign spokeswoman for Van Hollen downplayed the results, saying internal polling data had Van Hollen ahead.

“This poll reflects what everyone has always known — the campaign depends on the battle for the undecided voters in the Baltimore area,” said Sheila O’Connell, Van Hollen for Senate Campaign Manager.

“The Post poll was conducted before our campaign aired its first television ad in Baltimore,” she continued.” We have growing endorsements in the area, from respected legislators to grassroots activists. And our polling shows Van Hollen slightly ahead at the outset, with his lead growing as voters learn more about the records of candidates in the race. Unlike the Post, we polled off actual voter lists instead of a random sample of adults who say they might vote in the primary. We are very confident in our data.”

A spokesman for Edwards also disputed the Post poll, insisting their polling shows Edwards ahead in the race. They also noted, pointedly, that their poll has been released publicly.

“Donna’s lead in the polls continues to grow because she’s the only progressive fighter in this race willing take on the special interests that stand in the way of progress for Maryland’s middle class families,” said Edwards spokesman Benjamin Geddes. “In Donna, Marylanders can count on a progressive champion who will protect Social Security, fight income inequality, and stand down the National Rifle Association when they try to secretly buy off politicians.”

The poll conducted by Edwards found her with a 42-37 percent lead over Van Hollen. It did not include Cummings in the race, though it found 65 percent of respondents held a favorable view of him.

Updated at 1:57 p.m.

Tags 2016 Senate Races Barbara Mikulski Chris Van Hollen Donna Edwards Elijah Cummings