A.B. Stoddard: Is NH the key to 2016?

The New Hampshire primary is considered a must-win for Jeb Bush (R), because the former Florida governor seems to be facing headwinds in Iowa and could place poorly in the caucuses there. Donald Trump (R) is putting a heavy emphasis on New Hampshire; so is Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R), who is expected to announce his bid for the White House later this month; and of course Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) is gaining steam there on the Democratic side. If Sanders beats Hillary Clinton in Iowa, she will need to win New Hampshire. So what if they believed that to win the Granite State they would need to commit to reaching the same four critical goals as president?

No Labels is trying to make sure of it. The nonpartisan group that says it’s committed to “a new politics of problem solving” has assembled a “presidential campaign without a candidate,” designed to convince all candidates in both parties to sign on to tackling the following goals as president: creating 25 million jobs over 10 years, balancing the federal budget by 2030, securing Medicare and Social Security for 75 years and making America energy secure by 2024.

{mosads}On Oct. 12 in Manchester, N.H., No Labels will host what it’s calling a Problem Solver Convention, where it will gather more than 1,000 undecided voters and every presidential candidate it can convince to attend. The event, which the group will have spent nearly a year organizing, will likely be the largest not sponsored by a candidate during the New Hampshire primary. At the convention the four goals that make up the group’s National Strategic Agenda will be introduced to the voters and discussed by the candidates. 

No Labels’s aim to is create a citizen army that will bring its agenda into the presidential campaign at as many small candidate events as possible before the state’s big vote on Feb. 9, 2016. Any candidate participating will gain the eyes and ears of undecided voters, a majority of whom will be registered as “undeclared” independents. In New Hampshire, “undeclared” independent voters make up 40 percent of the state’s electorate, and because they can cast ballots in either the GOP or Democratic primaries, they are critical to the victories for candidates on either side.

With Iowa losing its influence in this cycle — the long-popular Ames straw poll suffered a sudden death and many campaigns are planning work-arounds for losing the caucuses — New Hampshire increasingly appears to be the place where the real race begins for both parties.

“New Hampshire is clearly the eye of the needle, through which every candidate is going to have to pass — on both sides New Hampshire is likely to be the single most significant early test, which is why we chose to go all in,” said Bill Galston of the Brookings Institution, co-founder of No Labels. “I would be surprised if a lot of them could resist the temptation to appear before such a large group of uncommitted voters.”

Since January, roughly 30 representatives of No Labels, made up of paid staff and interns, have fanned out around the state each day, attending events, informing voters and contacting campaigns. In conspicuous T-shirts they get their pictures taken with candidates, work to convince them to attend the convention and to convince voters to demand the candidates commit to the goals No Labels identified as those a majority of Americans chose as priorities in polling.

No matter the outcome, No Labels, with more than 80 members of Congress from both parties serving in its Problem Solvers Caucus, isn’t going away. And for members whose constituents are begging them to help make Congress function, a popular and non-controversial agenda is a most welcome change. “No Labels is ambitious and energetic,” said Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.). “Their goals are clear and they offer a platform to unite all Americans.”

Indeed, it sounds hard to resist.

Stoddard is an associate editor of The Hill.