OVERNIGHT FINANCE: House offers budget; Markets brace for Yellen

TOMORROW STARTS TONIGHT: IT’S ALL ABOUT JANET YELLEN. Is the mood still “patient?” You already know: Fed officials will release a statement tomorrow. Everybody wants to know when they’ll raise interest rates, which have been kept at near zero percent since the collapse. They’ve said in their recent past policy statements that they will be “patient.” Those wonky Fed-watchers are now saying that if Chairwoman Yellen and company drop the word “patient” from their statement, rates could rise as early as June. We pick it up with CNBC.com…

{mosads}– CNBC: Expect a more hawkish Yellen. Fred Imburt reports: “Investors should be prepared to see a more hawkish Janet Yellen than in the past, two analysts said Tuesday… The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting on Tuesday, with investors expecting the Fed to drop the word ‘patient’ from its statement on Wednesday, thus paving the way for a midyear rate hike.” http://cnb.cx/1ABFTYM

— WSJ: Expect ‘patient’ to be nixed. “The Federal Reserve is widely expected to take a small step Wednesday toward raising short-term interest rates later this year by dropping its promise to be “patient” in deciding when to start… The committee is likely to strike the ‘patient’ pledge from its policy statement, which would formally open the door to the possibility of a rate increase in June.” http://on.wsj.com/1wWoFsT

— MARKET REACTION, via Reuters: “The Dow and S&P 500 fell on Tuesday as commodity-related shares declined and nervousness increased ahead of a Federal Reserve statement, while the Nasdaq edged higher.” http://reut.rs/1F0eqqg

THIS IS OVERNIGHT FINANCE, where we’re never patient. Happy St. Patrick’s Day. I’m half-Irish and half-Italian. This is a great day. Be safe. Tweet: @kevcirilli; email: kcirilli@digital-stage.thehill.com; and subscribe: http://digital-stage.thehill.com/signup/48. Big day tomorrow…

TALK OF THE TOWN: SCHOCK RESIGNS. Scott Wong and The Hill’s Congress team: “Rep. Aaron Schock (R-Ill.) said Tuesday he would resign his seat in Congress at the end of the month amid numerous reports he had misused hundreds of thousands of taxpayer and campaign dollars on private flights, event tickets and office renovations.” http://bit.ly/1BuXEYW

BUDGET BATTLE: DOES IT EVEN HAVE A CHANCE? Rebecca Shabad with the primer: “House Republicans are offering a budget Tuesday that would balance in nine years and cut $5.5 trillion in projected spending over the next decade. The budget would keep spending ceilings under a 2011 budget deal in place.

1.) What’s in it? Shabad reports: “[It’d] provide as much as $90 billion in additional war funding — much more than the $51 billion proposed by President Obama… It does not touch Social Security but proposes that a bipartisan commission study the entitlement program’s problems and then submit proposals to Congress… On the tax side, [it’d] repeal the alternative minimum tax but otherwise does not propose major tax reform, unlike last year’s budget from Ryan.”

2.) What about ObamaCare? Shabad: “The budget resolution includes instructions for House committees to figure out how to repeal as much of ObamaCare as possible under budget reconciliation, a process that would prevent Democrats in the Senate from filibustering a budget reconciliation bill.” Story: http://bit.ly/1EYVkRe

3.) What’s Obama think? The president said earlier today: “We’re going to have a robust debate… It’s not a budget that reflects the future… It’s not a budget that reflects growth. It’s not a budget that is going to help ensure that middle class families are able to maintain security and stability, and that people who are trying to get into the middle class have the rungs on the ladder to get into the middle class.” Jordan Fabian for The Hill: http://bit.ly/1GYVhWo

JACK LEW UNDER ATTACK: GOP PRESSES HIM ON HILLARY EMAILS. Peter Schroeder was in the room for The Hill at the contentious House Financial Services Committee hearing earlier today: “Treasury Secretary Jack Lew faced pressure from GOP lawmakers about whether he knew how Hillary Clinton handled her emails while both were at the State Department. While Lew served directly under Hillary Clinton when she was secretary of State, he maintained Tuesday he had no recollection of Clinton’s decision to route all her emails through a private email server rather than a government one. Nor did he recall whether he sent her emails on her private email as opposed to an official government account.”

— SECRETARY LEW: “My general mode of communication with the secretary was meetings and phone calls,” he told lawmakers. “I did email with her from time to time. I don’t remember exactly how it showed up… I don’t remember giving it a lot of thought. It was a long time ago.”

— REP. SEAN DUFFY (R-Wis.) was stunned at the response: “What I’m assuming is, you knew you were corresponding with her on an account that [was] an unofficial account. All of us here understand that you’re saying, ‘I knew there was a nonofficial account, I just don’t want to tell you here.’ “ Pete’s story: http://bit.ly/1Cq4bJU

Meanwhile…

HILLARY CLINTON’S TRADE PROBLEM: Why Obama’s trade agenda will complicate her campaign. My latest: “President Obama’s pro-trade agenda is a problem for Hillary Clinton, who is under pressure from liberals to oppose her former boss’s push for fast-track authority as she prepares to run for the White House. The Obama agenda is also highlighting the former secretary of State’s complicated record on trade, which could open the Democratic presidential front-runner to criticism from the left.”

Let’s drink… How about some Irish whiskey… Jameson? 

SHOT, via Robert Reich, former President Bill Clinton’s Labor secretary tells me: “[It] could definitely be a headache for her in 2016 because it is so very unpopular among progressives.”

CHASER, via Will Marshall, president and founder of the centrist Progressive Policy Institute: “Democratic candidates in 2016 aren’t going to get into trouble for supporting… Most voters understand that America can’t prosper in isolation and they have little interest in yet another reenactment of the long-ago battle of NAFTA.” Story: http://bit.ly/1xuH8Yp

SEC ENTERS FIDUCIARY FIGHT (SORTA). Melanie Waddell for Think Advisor: “Securities and Exchange Commission Chairwoman Mary Jo White said Tuesday that the agency should ‘act’ on a uniform fiduciary standard for brokers and investment advisors, one that should be ‘principles-based and rooted in the current fiduciary standard for investment advisors,’ and that the agency should also move forward on third-party exams for advisors.”

— WHAT WHITE SAID: “My own personal view, which I think you share and many others share, is that the SEC should act under Section 913 of Dodd-Frank to implement a uniform fiduciary duty for broker-dealers and investment advisors” where the standard is to act in the best interest of clients when giving advice to retail investors. http://bit.ly/1Lq1L3A

— WHAT WHITE DIDN’T SAY: A lot. We didn’t learn her thoughts on Congressional legislation that would require SEC officials to draft their proposal first. We didn’t learn the crux of what her proposal would do – – for example: how would it be different from what Labor wants? And we didn’t learn a timeline for when / if she will propose a rule. My story: http://bit.ly/1wWO8Cy

— REACTION, via Bill Harris, CEO of digital wealth management start-up Personal Capital and former CEO of PayPal: “I’m thrilled to see folks in Washington, D.C. moving in the right direction on the fiduciary standard – all Americans should be given honest, transparent advice on their hard-earned savings.”

DEMOCRATS LAST MINUTE EXIM VOTE FAILS. This stunned even the business community! My latest: “House Democrats on Tuesday failed in a bid to force reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank. In an unexpected move that caught even the business community by surprise, Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) offered an amendment on the House floor that would have brought a seven-year reauthorization bill for Ex-Im. The amendment failed in a party line vote.” http://bit.ly/1EZXssb

DOES THE FED NEED MORE REGIONAL BANKS? John Dearie, an executive vice president at the Financial Services Forum, in an op-ed for WSJ:  “[Let’s start] by creating two additional regional Reserve Banks in Western cities. Doing so would help make the Fed more accountable to more Americans, and monetary policy more responsive to a large and diverse U.S. economy.” http://on.wsj.com/1LiBqo8

FIRST LOOK: AMERICANS FEEL MIDDLE-CLASS OPPORTUNITIES ARE DECLINING. Benenson Strategy Group and SKDKnickerbocker are out with a new poll that found that 45 percent of most voters feel that opportunities for middle-class and working Americans have declined in the last two decades. But 41 percent of voters also believe opportunities will increase for middle-class and working Americans in the next 20 years. Seventy-one percent of voters think that today’s children have more opportunities than previous generation. See the results: http://bit.ly/1GT9ock

NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION EARNS SUBURBAN PRAISE. Talk to any moderate Democrat — here’s looking at you, Rep. Denny Heck (Wash.), Ron Kind (Wis.) — and they’ll tell you that if Democrats want to win independent voters living in the suburbs, then they’ll need to adopt a more pragmatic, pro-growth message that the New Democrat Coalition is pitching. You already know: Progressive groups are deriding the plan, but here’s what state- and local-level Democrats are saying in suburban districts:

“It’s encouraging to see New Democrats offering policies that can break the gridlock in Congress and boost the economy in ways that will expand opportunity for all of us here in Flint, Michigan,” says Flint, Mich., Mayor Dayne Walling … “The key to furthering American prosperity is creating opportunities for the middle class to succeed, The American Prosperity Agenda offers a comprehensive plan for action that will ensure economic progress for decades to come,” says Downingtown, Pa., Mayor Josh Maxwell.

Write us with tips, suggestions and news: vneedham@digital-stage.thehill.com; pschroeder@digital-stage.thehill.com; bbecker@digital-stage.thehill.com; rshabad@digital-stage.thehill.com; kcirilli@digital-stage.thehill.com.

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This story was updated at 7:54 a.m.