Kasich dips toes into 2016 waters

Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s (R) presidential ambitions are alive and well.

Fresh off his November reelection, the swing-state governor is reigniting speculation he will be a player in 2016.

{mosads}“I don’t think there’s any doubt he’s considering it,” a Republican strategist in Ohio told The Hill.

Kasich is still flying under the radar, skipping early voting states Iowa and New Hampshire to head west and push his budget ideas and build his Rolodex.

“He’s giving it a test run, seeing what the national limelight is like and what kind of a response he gets,” said Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist. “He’s getting whispers from some in the party who’d like to see him run so he’s kicking the tires.”

Earlier this year, Kasich said he had no interest in running for president. But with a convincing victory in a critical battleground state in his rear view mirror, he’s publicly changed his tune.

He declined to take a 2016 run off the table in a recent interview on ABC’s “This Week.”

Kasich also traveled to Arizona to promote an initiative for states to adopt balanced budget amendments. He joins the ranks of other potential presidential contenders who are road-testing their messages outside their home states.

“You have to go out there and see if your message resonates, what perception the base has of you, and how donors respond,” Mackowiak said.

Idaho has also invited Kasich to make his balanced budget pitch, and the governor’s office says other states may follow.

Kasich’s message should play well with fiscal conservatives and could help him overcome his poor name recognition. The trip also has the feel of a campaign event.

Balanced Budget Forever (BBF), a new PAC, is paying for Kasich’s trip. The group brought on Sarah Nelson, who managed the field operations in Western states for Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign, to help promote Kasich’s balanced budget initiative.

Most notably, Kasich met with GOP fundraiser Greg Wendt in Phoenix. Wendt raised money for Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) 2008 presidential run, and helped Romney in 2012 through donations to the Restore Our Future PAC. A Kasich representative said the two are old friends.

Some Republicans believe Kasich would be a formidable candidate if the cards fall right.

“He’s a very confident politician,” Mackowiak said. “He knows what he believes and doesn’t mind communicating that. He can fire up the base, which is key.”

As chairman of the House Budget Committee in the late 1990s, Kasich worked with then-President Clinton to balance the budget for three years. That achievement is still a touchstone for him.

“The balanced budget is a feather in his cap and it’s one thing he can say he did that nobody else has done,” the Ohio strategist said. “That kind of thing works great in a general election or as a battleground issue.”

Kasich’s office downplayed any connection between his road trip and 2016.

“The governor has been growing increasingly frustrated by our nation’s rising debt, having watched his work and dream of balancing the federal budget in the 1990s completely turned upside down,” Jim Lynch, a spokesman for Kasich, told The Hill about the trip.

Republican strategists say Kasich is the rare specimen who has both worked inside the beltway, giving him credibility among Washington powerbrokers, and spent enough time away that he can effectively run as an outsider.

In addition, the GOP has a deep bench of governors that some conservatives are thirsty to tap. And his home state Ohio, a crucial battleground state, looms over any talk about 2016.

Kasich demolished a Democratic candidate in the gubernatorial race this year when many believed he would face a tough reelection fight.

In 2016, Republicans will hold their national convention in Ohio. It’s a state no Republican in generations has won the presidency without.

Kasich also has a home-state ally in Congress. While Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is said to be privately pushing former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) to run, he and Kasich are friends and golf partners.

In addition, Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) has said he won’t seek the Republican nomination, leaving Kasich the top contender from the Buckeye State.

Strategists had previously lumped the two “Ohio twins” together when discussing their prospects.

For now, though, Kasich is buried in the polls, and his bid may depend on some big names sitting this cycle out, strategists say.

“He’s not one of the four candidates who will get in and be a first-tier game-changer that clears the field,” the Ohio Republican strategist said.

“But if one or more of them falls and he can cobble the money together, he can make a run of it.”

Kasich will be watching Jeb Bush. Both are viewed as “policy guys” and moderates within the GOP, but Bush has a grip on the big donors and national political ties to keep other contenders on the sidelines.

Top-tier candidates may have a lock on Republican mega-donors, but it just takes one wealthy investor to carry a candidate through the primaries, as evidenced by former Sen. Rick Santorum’s (R-Pa.) surprising 2012 run.

In addition to Wendt, Kasich has been linked to casino mogul Sheldon Adelson and has Wall Street ties from his time working at Lehman Brothers.

Some national Republican strategists remain skeptical.

They say Ohio’s politics have moved to the left and that Kasich’s perceived centrism will hurt him in the primaries.

“The problem for Kasich is that our party doesn’t have a lot of enthusiasm for moderate governors, and he’s clearly moved in that direction on immigration, by expanding Medicaid [under ObamaCare], and with Common Core,” said Mackowiak. “He has a lot of Jeb’s problems without his strengths.”

Kasich’s temperament is also a divisive issue among some Republicans.

One strategist said “he’s a little flakey,” another called him a “hot head” behind the scenes, while a third described him as “ADD and all over the place.”

Still, that abundance of energy could play well on the campaign trail if he could channel it right. The Ohio strategist said the governor could find success running a straight-talk campaign out of the McCain playbook.

“It’s not as far-fetched as it sounds,” the strategist said. “Anyone who dismisses him either has another interest or is lazily accepting that all these Bigfoot candidates will get in, and I don’t think anyone knows right now.”