US climate envoy: China deal boosts Paris talks, but uncertainty remains

The recent landmark deal between China and the U.S. to slash greenhouse gas emissions has boosted international negotiations ahead of Paris talks next year, according to a top administration official.

Todd Stern, climate envoy for the State Department, said the deal President Obama struck with China was a “big, big step” that the administration hopes will boost action by other nations.

{mosads}“Our sense is that the way this will resonate in the broader climate community will rattle a lot of things up no doubt, but overall it will be very positive and I think it will give momentum to negotiations, it will spur countries to come forward with their own target,” Stern said during an event hosted on Monday by the liberal think tank Center for American Progress.

“If you were holding stock in the Paris negotiations your stock would have gone up after this announcement because here you have the two historic antagonists, the two biggest players on climate change having come together at the presidential level to say ‘we are going to work together, here is what we are doing, we are going to be ambitious,’” Stern added.

Stern said the administration wanted to make its post-2020 pledge during the China deal as strong as possible but recognized its legal limits.

The U.S. agreed to cut emissions by 26 to 28 percent from 2005 levels by 2025 and China agreed that its emissions of warming gases would peak by 2030 or earlier.

Stern said it was “designed to be as ambitious as we possibly could on the basis of authorities that we knew that we had.”

He explained that China was concerned about U.S. capacity and its ability to implement the target, keeping a close eye on “politics” and “what is going on on the Hill.”

While the administration is optimistic other countries will be more willing to come to the table to work out details of a global climate accord when leaders meet in Peru in December, and prepare for talks next year in Paris, there are still outliers, and uncertainties.

An important player in talks that has yet to show its cards is India.

“It’s too early to say where they will position themselves in negotiations,” Stern said of India.

“The most important thing for India to see is that there is a path to eradicating poverty and to energy access. They have to see there is a path to get to those fundamental development needs that is as low-carbon as possible,” Stern said.

He added that the U.S wants to work with India as “closely as possible” but he wouldn’t pinpoint what he thinks India’s targets may be or when they will be set.

“Exactly how they are going to play in the negotiations, exactly how they are going to play in Lima and Paris, I don’t know, hopefully as constructive as possible,” he said.

Stern added that India “bristle[s] a little bit at the notion” that they are grouped together with China as emitters.

“They’re third, but it’s a distant third,” Stern said of India’s ranking on global emissions.

China is the world’s top emitter, and the U.S. comes in as a close second.

Stern said the Paris pact is meant to craft an agreement that is “legal in some fashion,” but stressed the need for it to be inclusive.

In the run-up to Paris, the administration plans to keep the pressure on.

“We’ve tried to come forward with ideas to prod and push countries to their maximum level of ambition,” Stern said.

By pressuring countries to set “nationally determined contributions” as early as possible they will be subject to “full sunlight.”

Action by the U.S. “pushes countries to come forward with their best shot right away because they don’t want to be embarrassed.”

Stern said the Paris agreement won’t answer all the questions, but will get countries going down the right path.

“Will will have nothing that will be perfect but if we can get it done it will be an agreement that is legal in some respects, has everyone involved, and will be more ambitious than ever before,” he said.

The U.S. post-2020 emissions targets and $3 billion pledge to a United Nations climate fund are signs, Stern said, of “the level of importance climate change has within the Obama administration.”

The actions were seen as a rebuff to Republicans, and a signal that the administration would not bow down on the president’s climate agenda despite the outcome of the midterms which brought in a new GOP majority in the Senate.

“I don’t know what’s going to happen in Lima, much less Paris,” Stern said. “And this is a stretch target for us but our sense is we can get there using the authorities we have and those would be carried forward by the next administration.”

“We understood from the very beginning that it was important to come in strong,” Stern said of the post-2020 target.

The president’s climate agenda and international commitments are sure to come under fire as soon as the GOP takes control of the Senate next year, but hard attacks against Obama’s plan are expected to get the veto pen.