Potential GOP White House hopefuls have choice to make

A big choice is looming for nearly a half-dozen potential presidential candidates — run for reelection to mostly safe seats in 2016 or take a gamble in a crowded GOP presidential primary. 

Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Rand Paul (Ky.) and Rob Portman (Ohio) all face expiring terms, as does Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.) has similar complications as the incoming chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.

{mosads}All will feel pressure to make their plans known sooner rather than later, which could speed up the formation of the presidential field.

A solution Paul is exploring is to figure out a way to run for both. The Kentucky Republican is the only candidate who’s likely to make a play for two offices. He gathered his national political team in Washington last week to talk through the strategy of waging two campaigns at once. 

The freshman senator is planning to announce his Senate reelection bid in the coming weeks, possibly before Thanksgiving. But he’s unlikely to face serious competition for a second term in his home state. Paul is also considering a presidential campaign, which would likely be announced officially next spring.

One obstacle: a Kentucky state law that prevents lawmakers from running for multiple offices at once. Paul’s allies in the Statehouse had planned to push for a change in that law. But Democrats unexpectedly held on to one chamber of the Kentucky Legislature, and the change will likely be dead on arrival as a result.

Nonetheless, Paul allies believe there’s a way to achieve both. 

“He’s 100 percent committed to running for reelection to the Senate. There will be a formal announcement soon. He’s said he’ll make a decision about the presidential race in the spring. We don’t believe the law in Kentucky would end up being an impediment to him running for both,” Paul adviser Dan Bayens told The Hill.

Paul backers in the Bluegrass State GOP are considering a switch from a primary to an earlier presidential caucus in 2016, which could give Paul a way to avoid having his name listed twice on one ballot and boost the state’s national importance as well — Kentucky’s usual May primary has meant it hasn’t had much impact on nominations in recent years.

Paul spent a half-hour on election night talking with Kentucky Republican Party Chairman Steve Robertson about the possible switch, and the state party likely will consider the formal change this spring.

That would solve Paul’s problem in the primary, but not if he wins the GOP nomination.

Paul allies argue that the law cannot be applied to federal elections, pointing out that the Supreme Court ruled in the 1990s that state term-limits laws couldn’t be applied to congressional races and claiming the same logic applies to other state election laws. 

They’re hopeful that a Republican will be elected in 2015 to the office currently held by Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), who will agree with their logic. Grimes, who just lost a Senate bid of her own to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), has indicated she’d take the question to the courts. If she or another Democrat wins, Paul may have to head to court to test his theory, something his strategists would like to avoid in the short term.

“If Rand wins the nomination you’re probably headed for a legal showdown one way or the other. The ballot issue is one we’d almost be certain to win. The Supreme Court in unequivocal terms has said states can’t impose limits on running for federal office,” said one Paul strategist.

Rubio and Portman plan to decide between the White House and reelection sooner rather than later. Both would be favored for reelection but hail from purple states and don’t have the luxury of trying to run two campaigns at once. They say they won’t make simultaneous bids.

“We’re going to think about it, we’re going to spend the next few weeks like anybody else would, and we’ll figure out the right choice sometime early next year,” Rubio told The Hill last week. “We’re going to continue to do our work and figure out what the right choice is.”

Rubio has been doing everything he can to prepare for a presidential bid. He has a new book coming out in January, helped a number of early-state candidates on the stump in 2014, and is working with Ryan to craft an overarching GOP alternative to replace ObamaCare.

He also sent out a top adviser, Alex Conant, to help Sen.-elect Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) in the final month of her campaign. Joining Conant was his wife, Caitlin, a senior Portman adviser.

Portman, a fundraising powerhouse with close ties to the Bush clan and an outgoing vice-chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is also likely to make a decision soon. He’s been a late addition to the presidential conversation. Though the Ohioan seems less gung-ho about a run than Paul or even Rubio, he’s also talking about weeks rather than months before he makes a decision.

“Sen. Portman just got finished leading the effort to win the Senate majority. He is fortunate to have a great job representing Ohio in the Senate and that will remain his focus,” said a Portman adviser. “But as he has said, he is going to take some time in the coming weeks to talk with family and trusted advisers about the encouragement he has received from supporters across Ohio and across the country before making any decisions. He isn’t going to put a specific timetable on such an important decision.”

Pence, a dark-horse presidential candidate who has close ties to both fiscal and social conservatives, also plans to run for one office or the other, not both. But the governor and former congressman may take more time to make up his mind.

“We’re taking steps to run for reelection. We’ll probably make a decision about our future sometime next spring,” Pence said on Fox News Tuesday morning. “But with a long session of our Legislature up ahead, with lots of opportunities to build on the momentum we have here in Indiana, I’m going to stay focused on the future of the people of our state, and we’ll let my future take care of itself.”

Pence recently made it clear he wasn’t interested in helming the Republican Governors Association, a move many read as a signal he’s interested in a presidential bid.

Ryan faces a different obstacle — a new House GOP Conference rule that bars congressmen from chairing committees while running for higher office. On Tuesday, the 2012 vice presidential nominee was tapped to lead the powerful House Ways and Means Committee next Congress, a position he’s always coveted and would be unlikely to give up so soon. 

However, House Republicans added a caveat to the new rule that allows members to seek a waiver from leadership, possibly to give Ryan leeway to make his own decision. 

Sens. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) and John Thune (R-S.D.) have also been buzzed about as having presidential potential and are facing reelection in 2016, though both have indicated they plan to run for reelection. There’s some chance that one or both could be considered as the vice presidential nominee.