Dems’ Senate odds 50-50, former Obama campaign aide says

The man who oversaw the field operation for President Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign says Democrats have no better than a 50-50 shot at retaining the Senate when voters head to the polls next month.

{mosads}“I tend to be an optimist under these circumstances,” Mitch Stewart, who now works as a Democratic consultant, told Yahoo News. “I know the models that Nate Silver and others have that … lay out a 63 to 64 percent chance that Republicans will get a majority in the Senate. I think the rosiest scenario is you’re looking at a 50-50 proposition.”

Stewart said his optimism grew partially from Democratic investments in the ground game, including spending some $40 million on hiring 4,000 field staff.

“You’re seeing some of the fruits of that labor right now,” he said.

But, Stewart said, turning out minority voters was crucial to Democratic hopes in the midterm elections. He noted that in 2008 the non-white voting population was 26 percent, and that percentage grew to 28 percent in 2012. But the last midterm elections were dominated by older, whiter voters.

“Eventually the midterms will catch up; but at least for the foreseeable future, you are going to have a bipolar electorate between presidential and midterm elections,” Stewart said.

President Obama has made turning out minority voters a key component of his midterm strategy, appearing on urban radio stations and taping radio advertisements to air in cities like New Orleans and Atlanta. Earlier this week, Obama held a get-out-the-vote rally in a predominantly black section of Milwaukee.

Obama has also made early voting a focus of his campaign, making a point to cast his ballot on the first day Illinois allowed voters to the polls and touting early voting efforts on the campaign trail.

“Because early voting runs through this Friday, you don’t have to wait till Election Day — you can vote all week,” Obama said Tuesday in Wisconsin. “I mean, you can only vote once. This isn’t Chicago, now.”

Stewart said banking early votes would be key for Democratic candidates like Rep. Bruce Braley, who is seeking to replace Sen. Tom Harkin in Iowa.

“If 40 percent of the electorate votes early, and Braley has a 10-point lead, that means that his opponent is going to have to win Election Day probably by 7 points,” Stewart said.