GOP’s first and only competitor to Dems’ political intelligence monopoly

When, in the eyes of Democrats, President George W. Bush “stole” not one, but two presidential elections, the party did not stand idly by. Democrats came back unified, strong and –most importantly — with better research, messaging, and targeting. Thanks to this focus on data and analytics, Democrats have beaten Republicans to a pulp in the game of persuasion and turnout in the wake of 2004. It’s a huge part of the reason Democrats have won the last two presidential elections and ensured they’ve been able to maintain control of the U.S. Senate since 2006.

Two years ago, political analyst Sasha Issenberg wrote in Slate.com: “[W]hen it comes to the use of voter data and analytics, the two sides appear to be as unmatched as they have ever been on a specific electioneering tactic in the modern campaign era.”

{mosads}Republicans now have an opportunity to ensure the Democrats’ reign in this area is over. But will the GOP admit their shortcomings, put pride aside, and use the appropriate tools necessary?

That vital tool is data collected by Evolving Strategies — who, in concert with Aristotle (a renowned campaign technology firm) — has conducted the largest known experiment in the history of political campaigning for the Right.

Pulled together by a team of PhDs and data scientists, they found not only which specific topics will influence individual voters, but how those topics need to be messaged in order to move an individual’s vote.

For a decade, self-proclaimed ‘progressive’ organizations such as the Analyst Institute, AFL-CIO, EMILY’s List, Women’s Voices Women Vote, Clarity Labs, and more — have used randomized-controlled experiments to perfect messaging and targeting. To their infinite credit, these tactics have outperformed all others in the political environment. 

In 2012, Issenberg almost all but foresaw Obama’s presidential win due to “a flowering partnership between Obama’s team and the Analyst Institute” in his article “The Death of the Hunch: Campaigns used to guess which ads were most effective. Now they can prove it. How Obama’s embrace of empiricism could swing the 2012 race.”  

So when Kevin Collins, the director of research for the Analyst Institute, admitted “[Evolving Strategies] is the right’s answer to the Analyst Institute,” they could receive no higher accolade. Hopefully Mr. Issenberg will agree and find the “use of voter data and analytics” between the two parties has the potential to be much more “matched” from here on out.

 Amongst the strategies proven effective on the Left, ES experts went to the next level using cutting-edge, proprietary machine-learning techniques to predict how a message will shift an individual’s support before it’s been delivered; they call this a “PreCog Score,” short for precognition – or “future sight.”

With the Senate races in a desperate battle for leadership next month, just this month Evolving Strategies released its latest research conducted in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina — the states with the four most competitive races that will decide which way the power pendulum will swing.

The significance of this research relies on what ES has termed the “PreCog Audience.” Using data from 600,000 voters of the four states and applying the “PreCog Score,” they’re able to forecast voter behavior for the 13 million total voters in these four states. Simply put – these are the voters needed to win the election. Thanks to this technology, the GOP has the opportunity to be pulled out of the dark ages and start winning elections – because now it’s possible to know in advance what will move the electorate. 

For the past few years, the Democrats may have beat the Grand Old Party to the punch at taking the guess work out of elections and relying upon science — but if Evolving Strategies’ revolutionary product is employed, Democrats will be forced to hand over the keys of the Senate for the first time in eight years.

Sabbeth is a freelance writer and producer and a former producer at the Fox News Channel.