Udall: We will shock the pundits

DENVER  — Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) and his allies have a clear message for political handicappers and pollsters: You’re wrong.

The incumbent and his supporters insist they will shock the pundits on Election Day, even though Udall hasn’t had the lead in a single public poll in more than a month and is facing a rising GOP star in Rep. Cory Gardner.

{mosads}Two new surveys released Tuesday gave Gardner a narrow lead, underscoring Democratic fears that the race for the Senate majority could be lost in a state that voted for Barack Obama twice.

Udall’s campaign scoffs at suggestions that their candidate is in trouble, even as they acknowledge Gardner is a tough competitor and that internal polls reflect a tied race.

“I’m more confident than I’ve been the whole campaign,” one Udall staffer told The Hill.

They say the same ground game that lifted Sen. Michael Bennet (D) to a surprise win during a brutal 2010 for Democrats will help Udall. And they point to internal numbers that show the incumbent with a huge lead with independent women.

Details provided to The Hill from a Colorado Democrat with access to the campaign’s polling show Udall leading Gardner among unaffiliated women, by 59 to 29 percent.

“We’re gonna shock all the pundits out there saying, ‘Oh, we think Colorado’s slipping away, it’s not really a nice light blue color,’” Udall told a crowd in Denver last week, eliciting a huge cheer.

Yet Udall is also showing signs that his campaign realizes it is behind.

He avoided local and national reporters at several events last week. One aide said the senator was too tied up with fundraising in a race that in total spending by the two candidates and outside groups has topped $60 million. Udall’s campaign, however, says he has been accessible and held several interviews with local and national press during a bus tour late last week. 

While Gardner appeared at four candidate forums last Tuesday, Udall stopped by only one. The incumbent went on the attack in the final debate between the two candidates — and lost a prized endorsement from The Denver Post.

Some supporters are concerned, particularly given apathy among voters.

“You run into a fair number of people who are ho-hum [about the elections],” said Kathy Tolman, a 70-year-old retired teacher. “So that’s a worry. I don’t know what to do about that.”

“Obnoxious, one-issue campaign”

The Post’s endorsement of Gardner was accompanied by surprisingly harsh criticism of Udall, whom the paper decried as running an “obnoxious one-issue campaign” focused on Gardner’s past support for a Colorado “personhood” measure that would effectively ban abortion.

Udall downplays the rejection on the campaign trail, noting that he didn’t get the paper’s endorsement during his first House run, either — and still won that race.

“Rallies are important, debates are important, TV ads are important, editorial boards — they’re not so important,” he jokes.

The Udall camp isn’t apologizing for the focus on Gardner’s support for personhood, which it thinks explains Udall’s wide lead with unaffiliated female voters.

“This will be won by unmarried women, suburban women around Denver and getting Latinos to the polls,” Udall campaign spokesman Chris Harris told The Hill.

To win, Udall will need to break even in the Denver suburbs — and that’s where the pitch to female voters comes in.

Relentless cheer

Gardner’s trademark smile and relentless cheer have helped him in the race and made it more difficult for Udall to tie him to unpopular congressional Republicans.

He sought to neutralize Democrats’ “war on women” talking point early by reversing his support for the personhood measure, which opponents argue would outlaw abortion, and by backing over-the-counter birth control.

Still, his conservatism tends to shine through when he’s confronted directly on contentious issues, a fact some Democrats wish Udall would’ve harnessed more aggressively during the debates.

“Gardner’s been able to walk away from some of those extreme positions, with very few consequences,” one Democratic operative said following a candidate forum at which Gardner spoke but Udall was absent.

The typically polished Republican became flustered and evasive when asked Wednesday about whether or not he thought Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) would make a good majority leader.

“We’ve got lots of leaders in the United States Senate. I’m focused on Nov. 4, that’s what we’re gonna talk about,” Gardner said.

A three-week Election Day

Colorado’s new voting laws are a wild card in the race.

Every registered voter received a ballot in the mail last week, giving both Republicans and Democrats the opportunity to follow turnout in real time and pester holdouts. Coloradans can also register to vote through Election Day, allowing for the possibility that both parties could increase turnout.

Democrats boast that their ground game is better than ever.

They have 25 field offices, versus 15 in 2010; 100 field organizers compared to 40; and 3,200 active volunteers, more than three times what Bennet had. They’ve also registered 50,000 new voters over the past six months.

But Republicans insist they won’t be caught sleeping. They’ve set up 14 field offices around the state, twice what they’ve had in previous midterms. And they’re using the same data-based tactics as Democrats to target GOP voters.

Outside groups from both sides have launched turnout efforts.

Americans for Prosperity, a group backed by billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, pledged to spend $500 million on the midterms, with half of that going towards field operations in states where elections are crucial to control of the Senate, such as Colorado.

Udall is getting field help from a number of green, women’s and progressive groups.

Democrats have a tougher road to hoe, however, as they’re facing a significant enthusiasm gap — 20 points, according to a Fox News poll out this month.

And as of Sept. 1, there were about 57,000 more registered Republicans in Colorado than registered Democrats.

But Democrats, as Palacio put it, “do field well.”

It will take until Nov. 4 to find out if that confidence is well founded, or if it’s all just a Democratic delusion.

This post was updated at 9:50 a.m.