OVERNIGHT CAMPAIGN: Poll trouble for Dems

Democrats can’t be happy about a slew of new polling showing their party in trouble in races crucial to their Senate majority and minimizing House losses.

New polls out over the weekend found Democrats trailing in Senate races in Iowa, a likely must-win for the party, and Louisiana, as well as in an open Maine House seat both parties thought early on that Democrats would win easily.

Other recent public polling has also had a lot more good news for the GOP in Senate races in Arkansas and Alaska, other key battlegrounds, with President Obama’s unpopularity rating rising to new heights.

{mosads}Public polls tend to bounce around a lot and often miss the mark by a few points — or more — in either direction, and Democrats’ internal polls have often shown its members in better shape in recent weeks than what’s come out from nonpartisan pollsters. But there’s been a lot of good news for Republicans in both national and state-specific polls and for both House and Senate races. And that has to be leaving a lot of Democrats feeling nervous.

 

SENATE SHOWDOWN

AR-SEN (PRYOR): Former President Clinton will barnstorm Arkansas for two days next week to help Democrats turn out voters on college campuses. He’s committed to more events in late October, a source tells The Hill.

AK-SEN (BEGICH): Republican nominee Dan Sullivan returned to his childhood hometown in Ohio for a fundraiser on Monday. The Democratic group American Bridge greeted him with a billboard welcoming back the “native son.”

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), a potential 2016 White House candidate, was in Kansas raising money for embattled Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.).

Independent Greg Orman said he would give “deference” to presidents on their Supreme Court nominations and indicated he wouldn’t have opposed any of the current Supreme Court justices’ nominations.

IA-SEN (OPEN): Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) and Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) squared off in their first debate Sunday night.

Ernst’s husband sued a house painter for not finishing his work and garnished his wages after he won the case. Ernst has accused Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) of being overly litigious. 

TN-SEN (ALEXANDER): Gordon Ball, the Democrat running against Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), plagiarized nearly all of his campaign website from other candidates.

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

CA-17 (HONDA): The San Francisco Chronicle re-upped its endorsement of Democrat Ro Khanna, who’s taking on Rep. Mike Honda (D-Calif.) in their all-party general election. The paper first endorsed Khanna before the all-party primary.

MN-7 (PETERSON): Rep. Collin Peterson’s (D-Minn.) campaign responded to a poll from his opponent showing a close race with a poll from three weeks ago that found Peterson up by more than 20 points. 

 

AD WATCH

NC-SEN (HAGAN): North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis (R) accuses Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) of keeping “quiet” on ISIS while President Obama failed to act quickly.

NASCAR icon Richard Perry endorses Tillis in a new ad from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

LA-5 (MCALLISTER): The Club for Growth accuses “kissing congressman” Vance McAllister (R-LA.) of being a “liberal” in a new ad.

FL-2 (SOUTHERLAND): Rep. Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) features a female veteran in a new ad. Southerland has been attacked for hosting a men-only fundraiser.

DCCC: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released new ads touting former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays (D) and attacking Reps. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.), Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) and Republicans facing Reps. Ron Barber (D-Ariz.), Scott Peters (D-Calif.) and Rick Nolan (D-Minn.).

OUTSIDE GROUPS: The House Majority PAC released new ads attacking Republicans facing Barber and Nolan and Reps.  William Enyart (D-Ill.) and Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.).

 

POLL POSITION

IA-SEN (OPEN): Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) leads Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) 44 percent to 38 percent in a poll conducted for the Des Moines Register.

LA-SEN (LANDRIEU): Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) leads Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) 50 percent to 47 percent in a runoff scenario, according to a CNN poll released over the weekend.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) leads North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis (R) 46 percent to 43 percent in a CNN poll released over the weekend.

AR-2 (OPEN): Democrat Pat Hays leads Republican French Hill 44 percent to 41 percent in a new internal poll.

 

2016 RUMBLINGS

O’MALLEY: Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) said in early-voting New Hampshire that voters want “new leaders,” a seeming shot at Hillary Clinton.

CHRISTIE: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) is spending a lot of time on the road helping other GOP gubernatorial candidates in the run-up to next month’s election — a sign to some he’s ramping up for a 2016 campaign.

CRUZ: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is ramping up his foreign policy focus in preparation for a 2016 run and is strongly leaning toward a bid, with an advisor saying a 90 percent likelihood that he runs is “lowballing it.”

CLINTON: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former President Clinton are now grandparents. Chelsea Clinton gave birth to baby Charlotte, she announced on Saturday.

Rep. Joaquín Castro (D-Texas) endorsed Clinton and the group Ready for Hillary. His twin brother, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro (D), has been rumored as a potential Clinton running mate should she win the nomination in 2016.

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY 

“You women don’t understand — guns are for men what jewelry is for women.”

— Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), back when he was in the Iowa state Senate — comments he jokingly doubled down on to Talking Points Memo