Poll: Colorado Senate race a dead heat

A new independent poll shows Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) locked in a statistical tie with Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) in their Senate race.

{mosads}The poll, conducted by Suffolk University for USA Today, gives Udall 42 percent support among likely voters to Gardner’s 43 percent, within the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error. The rest of the candidates on the ballot earn about 5 percent of the vote, and another 10 percent of respondents remain undecided.

It is the first survey since mid-July to show such a tight race. Since then, six public polls have given Udall a lead ranging from 2 to 8 points.

Particularly troubling for Udall in the new poll is the relatively small difference in responses from men and women. The senator has made Gardner’s positions women’s issues central lines of attack in the race, charging he’s anti-woman for supporting a measure that would restrict access to birth control and effectively ban abortion.

But he only leads among women by 6 points, taking 47 percent support to Gardner’s 41 percent. In contrast, Udall trails among men by 10 points, with 35 percent of the male vote.

And those attacks don’t seem to be taking a toll on Gardner’s image in the state, either. He’s still viewed more positively than negatively, with 41 percent saying they have a favorable view of the congressman, while 37 percent rating him unfavorably.

Voters are split on Udall, about 44 percent each saying they view him favorably and unfavorably. But more disapprove of his job performance, 49 percent, than the 42 percent that approve.

And discontent with President Obama remains high in the Centennial State. Fifty-six percent disapprove of his job performance and 42 percent approve, nearly the same spread between voters who view him personally favorably and unfavorably.

Democrats had hoped Udall would be one of their easier incumbents to protect, due to the Democratic lean of the state in past presidential contests, but Republicans have a slight registration advantage there that could make a major impact during a year full of tough races for Democrats, like this one.

The survey was conducted among 500 likely voters Sept. 13-16 by live-caller interviews via landline and cellphone.