On heels of Tuesday elections, 2012 forecasts abound

Democrats won big both in legislative races and on issue-related ballot measures Tuesday, calling into question the wisdom of the GOP gambit of running to the right and betting that voters will reject the Democratic agenda.

But a rebuke of President Obama’s healthcare reforms in Ohio and scattered GOP gains elsewhere generated new fodder for Republican predictions that the president will serve as a drag on down-ballot Democrats in 2012.

{mosads}One takeaway from Tuesday’s results is that both parties are likely to concede that the 2012 election will be fought and decided in key swing states such as Virginia and Ohio, where Republicans risk overreaching by running too far to the right, but where Obama’s difficulties leave support for Democratic candidates in question.

Voters gave another term to Kentucky’s Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, and reelected a key state senator in Iowa, allowing Democrats to hold on to control of Iowa’s Senate. They also voted to recall Arizona state Senate President Russell Pearce (R), who became one of the left’s most reviled foes after he authored the state’s controversial immigration crackdown.

But Republicans saw victories in Virginia, an important swing state in the presidential election. Last cycle, Obama was the first Democrat to win that state in four decades, and he’s looking to repeat his victory.

Democrats used the results, however, to pound on Mitt Romney, one of the front-runners for the GOP presidential nomination, which agains points to the evening’s 2012 implications.

“Last night’s elections are a clear rejection of Mitt Romney’s vision for America,” said a Democratic campaign official, noting that Romney had backed the losing side in contests in at least four states.

In Ohio, voters rebuked Gov. John Kasich (R) by undoing a law he championed to restrict collective bargaining rights for public employees. The triumph for unions and their Democratic allies who opposed the bill sent up warning signals for other Republican leaders who have championed similar legislation, including Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

The victory even yielded a celebratory comment from the White House.

“Tonight the people of Ohio delivered a gigantic victory for the middle class with their overwhelming rejection of a Republican attempt to strip away collective bargaining rights,” said Vice President Biden. “Fundamental fairness has prevailed.”

Mississippi voters dealt a surprise defeat to an initiative to define “personhood” as starting from the moment of fertilization, which would have effectively outlawed abortion. The measure lost by 16 points, with 96 percent of precincts reporting.

The Republican loss on an anti-abortion-rights measure in one of the nation’s most conservative states stood in stark contrast to the GOP presidential candidates, who have been one-upping each other for months over who can take the hardest line against abortion. Michele Bachmann even proposed a law forcing women to hear the heartbeat of their fetus before consenting to an abortion.

Republicans called Tuesday a “great night” for the party and pointed to GOP victories in the Mississippi governor’s race and in Virginia, where they won a special state Senate race in their attempt to seize control of the chamber from Democrats. Both parties are waiting on a final state Senate race to be called; the party that wins that race will control the state Senate.

The GOP also downplayed the significance of the results of the off-year election for forecasting 2012 — unlike in September, when Republicans were quick to draw broad implications from their victories in two special House races, in New York and Nevada.

“Sure, Republicans hoped to win the collective bargaining issue in Ohio, but there will be other reforms brought forward by Republican leaders to control spending, because in poll after poll Americans are looking for fiscal responsibility,” said Republican National Committee spokesman Sean Spicer.

Ohio also offered Republicans their biggest reason to celebrate, by way of another ballot measure censuring the individual-mandate component of Obama’s healthcare reform law, which has become a rallying cry for Republicans nationally. The symbolic gesture can’t usurp federal law, but makes it clear that voter opposition to the law — even in a swing state Obama won in 2008 — is very real heading into the 2012 election.

All of the major Republican presidential candidates have vowed to repeal the healthcare law — including Romney, who supported a similar plan on a statewide basis when he served as governor of Massachusetts.

The blow to Democrats on healthcare in Ohio — like the state Senate races in Virginia, where the Democratic candidates actively distanced themselves from Obama — exacerbated Democratic concerns that while they might be winning voters over on the issues, they can’t escape the encumbrance of Obama’s depleted approval ratings.

“You’re going to see Democrats continue to scurry, almost like roaches under a flashlight,” said Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist. “Everywhere Democrats look, Obama creates problems for them — except, perhaps, fundraising.”