OVERNIGHT CAMPAIGN: The calm before the storm

Moderator Jim Lehrer will ask a question at the top of the segment, and each candidate will be given two minutes to respond. Lehrer will then use the remainder of the segment to address follow-up questions, but candidates will not be allowed to address questions to each other.

{mosads}The debate begins at 9 p.m. ET with Obama getting the first question and the questions alternating between candidates from there. You can watch the debate live on digital-stage.thehill.com and keep an eye on Twitter (including The Hill’s account @thehill), which is expected to act as a spin room.

TOMORROW’S AGENDA TODAY: President Obama will hold a campaign rallies in Denver and in Madison, Wis.

Vice President Biden will hold a campaign rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa, at 1:15 p.m.

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan will hold a campaign rally at Augusta Expoland in Fishersville, Va., at 6:45 p.m., where they will be joined by country singer Trace Adkins.

TWEET OF THE DAY: “#Teddy won! #Teddy won! #Teddy won! We’ve defeated the massive left wing conspiracy!” — Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), on Teddy Roosevelt’s win at the Washington Nationals game in the 4th quarter Presidential mascot race

POLL POSITION:

President Obama has opened up a 50-point lead among Latino voters, according to a new survey from NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Obama bests Mitt Romney 70 percent to 20 percent among registered Latino voters. And the president preserves that lead among likely Latino voters, ahead in that survey 71 percent to 21 percent.

New numbers are out in the swing states of Ohio, Florida and Virginia, via an NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal poll. Obama leads Romney among likely voters in Ohio 51 percent to 43 percent. Obama just barely leads Romney in Florida, 47 percent to 46 percent. Similarly, in Virginia, Obama leads Romney 48 percent to 46 percent.

After two years of divided government, a majority of voters now prefer single-party control of Washington, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which says 52 percent of registered voters surveyed believe it would be better if the presidency, the Senate and House were controlled by the same party.

AD WATCH:

Mitt Romney‘s campaign released a new Web ad, “Couldn’t Say it Better,” highlighting Vice President Biden‘s comment that the middle class has been “buried” over the last four years.

An anti-immigration group will debut a controversial new ad during Wednesday’s presidential debate that says politicians who support legal immigration believe “black Americans don’t want to work.”

The pro-Obama super-PAC Priorities USA has trimmed its ad reservations by $5 million in Florida and Wisconsin. A group spokeswoman told The Hill it will reinvest that in other states, and is beginning to buy ad time in Nevada.

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE:

NEW HAMPSHIRE: New nonpartisan polling shows Democrats with the edge to win back both of New Hampshire’s House seats. Former Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D-N.H.) leads Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.) by 47 percent to 38 percent, according to a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll, while Ann McLane Kuster (D) holds the narrowest of leads, 42 to 41 percent, over Rep. Charlie Bass (R-N.H.).

SENATE SHOWDOWN:

ARIZONA: It was a good day for Democratic nominee Richard Carmona, who
announced $2.2. million raised in the third quarter and leads by 2 points in the newest Public
Policy Polling survey of the race. Carmona’s campaign said the candidate
received 10,000 contributions at an average of $200 per contribution,
“demonstrating Dr. Richard Carmona’s strong grassroots support,”
according to a release. The poll gave him 45 percent support to Rep.
Jeff Flake‘s (R-Ariz.) 43 percent support, a shift from last month’s PPP
poll of the race, when Flake held a 1-point lead over Carmona. The
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee just went on air in the state as well, with a $526,000 buy that
targets Flake’s record on women’s issues.

MISSOURI: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) raised $5.8 million in the last quarter, and two new polls show her either widening or maintaining her lead in the Missouri Senate race.

NORTH DAKOTA: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched a
new ad in North Dakota’s Senate race targeting Rep. Rick Berg (R-N.D.)
for what it characterizes as his involvement with Goldmark Property
Management, a North Dakota real estate company that has violated fire
codes and received numerous tenant complaints. The ad is the second in
as many weeks from Democrats offering what they call evidence that Berg
is connected to GPM — the last, from Democratic candidate Heidi
Heitkamp last week, offered the same details (a real-estate license and
news reports) to tie him to the company. The doubling down on the issue
indicates not only that this is one they’ll continue to litigate until
Nov. 6, but also one that they believe could move the needle in one of
the closest Senate races in the nation.

VIRGINIA: Former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine (D) leads former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) by a comfortable margin, according to two new nonpartisan polls. Kaine leads Allen by 49 to 44 percent in a new NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll and by 47 to 37 percent in a new Roanoke College poll.

WISCONSIN: Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) leads former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) by 48 to 44 percent in a new Marquette University poll. The poll also showed President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 53 to 42 percent. The pollster accurately predicted the outcome of Wisconsin’s gubernatorial recall earlier this year. Baldwin has led in most recent polls of the race.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

Mitt Romney’s campaign unveiled its rapid response strategy ahead of the evening’s first presidential debate. With the presidential campaigns no longer relying on press releases via email to counter arguments being made in real time on the debate stage, the Romney campaign’s response strategy includes a new website, real-time updates on Twitter and Tumblr and a nationally promoted hashtag.

Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.) has become a power player in the Senate Democratic leadership because of how she has handled two “assignments from hell.” One was serving as co-chairwoman of the supercommittee tasked in 2011 with finding $1.2 trillion in budget savings after congressional leaders and President Obama failed to reach a deal. The second was taking over the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) in a cycle in which the party has to defend 23 Senate seats and deal with a wave of retirements.

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