Breedlove: Russia’s reaction to arming Ukraine impossible to predict

NATO’s military chief on Wednesday said there’s no way to be sure how Russia will react if the U.S. supplies lethal arms to Ukraine’s military.
 
“Clearly we don’t know what [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will do,” Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO’s supreme allied commander, told the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday
 
{mosads}”It could cause positive results, it could cause negative results” but “what we are doing now is not changing the results on the ground,” he said.

“I do not believe Ukrainian forces can stop a Russian advance in Eastern Ukraine,” Breedlove said.

He added that even with lethal aid, Ukrainian forces might not be able to stop a Russian advance but it could change Russian “calculations.”
 
Such a move might strengthen Kiev’s forces and allow them to be more effective against pro-Moscow separatists, but the potential concern is that Russia “might then double down” and escalate the violence, added Christine Wormuth, under secretary of defense for policy.
 
Their comments come as lawmakers in both chambers have stepped up their efforts to force the President Obama to provide lethal weapons to Kiev, a move he has so far declined to take for fear for escalating the conflict.
 
Earlier this month, the leaders of the Armed Services panel unveiled a bill to provide $1 billion in military assistance for Ukraine.
 
Breedlove said that his “top concern is a resurgent Russia” attempting to exercise power and influence through the use of force.
 
More than 1,000 pieces of Russian military equipment have been moved across the border into Ukraine to support pro-Moscow separatists and when rebel offensive have stalled Russian “regular forces themselves intervened,” he said.
Wormuth said DOD officials have “two areas of concern” about what Moscow might do next, including destabilizing non-NATO states, like Montenegro, or potentially creating instability in Baltic countries that have large ethnic Russia populations.
 
However, she said, officials have not made “significant active steps” toward either.
 
Breedlove speculated the Kremlin hasn’t accomplished its objective yet inside Ukraine.
 
He said he has discussed the possibility of supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine with the Obama administration.
 
“I have advised to my chain of command” on the kinds of arms Kiev’s military has requested, he said.
 
Small arms could be provided in a “very short timeline” but that more sophisticated weaponry might require training and therefore would take longer to get onto the battlefield,” according to Breedlove.
 
However, he said, “I don’t think we’ve exhausted” all options and that providing lethal assistance is the next step.
 
Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Texas), the panel’s chairman, admitted that no one can be certain how Putin will react to Washington supplying arms, but that lawmakers have seen what’s happened on the ground with them.
 
“And that hasn’t gone very well,” he said.

Wormuth said its possible that stiffer Russia sanctions might “potentially be more effective and have fewer downsides” than arming Ukraine.