Poll: Blunt up 4 points in Missouri Senate race

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) holds a narrow 4-point lead over likely Democratic challenger Jason Kander in Missouri, a new poll released Friday finds.

A new St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research found that Blunt leads Kander, 47 to 43 percent, which was within the survey’s margin of error in the GOP-leaning state.

{mosads}The poll also shows Blunt, who is the vice chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, leading among older, male and white voters, while Kander, who is Missouri’s secretary of State, leads with young, female and black voters.

Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker noted that incumbents who poll under 50 percent are considered vulnerable. He also pointed out that Blunt has a favorability rating of 33 to 31 percent, while Kander, who is less known to Missouri voters, has a rating of 26 to 13 percent.

“I am sure the Blunt people are going to go hard to raise that [unfavorable] number” on Kander, Coker told the Post-Dispatch.

“When an incumbent is running under 50 percent, they are always in the hot seat, and the fact that Blunt is only at 47 percent is probably more significant than the fact that he has a 4-percentage-point lead.”

The Missouri Senate race has recently become a more closely watched race as Democrats try to regain the Senate majority. They’ll need to net five seats — or four seats and retain the White House — to win control of the upper chamber. Democrats are defending 10 seats, while Republicans are defending 24.

Kander recently launched a bus tour across the Show Me State and a Republican outside group has already poured more than $2 million into the race to defend Blunt.

A RealClearPolitics polling average has Blunt leading Kander by 5 points, but the GOP senator continues to hold a sizable cash advantage.

The poll was conducted from July 23 to 24 and surveyed 625 likely voters via phone. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.