Dem hopes brighten in Iowa

DES MOINES, Iowa — The Democratic cavalry is riding in to save Rep. Bruce Braley’s (D-Iowa) Senate campaign, boosting the party’s hopes of salvaging a seat held it’s held for three decades. 

The once sullen mood here over Braley’s fledgling campaign and a summer surge by GOP state Sen. Joni Ernst have both evaporated. Both sides admit the race remains a toss-up, but Democrats are feeling better now than they have since springtime about the contest that could tip Senate control. 

{mosads}“It’s starting to open up a little bit. I feel a little better about it than I did a month ago. I think Bruce’s campaign strategies are working and things are starting to come together here. It’s certainly not pretty, but I think it’s going to be OK,” said former Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty Judge (D).

After her June primary victory, Ernst opened up a slim lead over Braley, buoyed by the Army National Guard veteran’s compelling personal story and her opponent’s multiple campaign missteps, punctuated by his insulting the state’s senior senator, Chuck Grassley, as just a “farmer from Iowa.” 

But three months later, heavy ad spending by Democratic outside groups has spiked Ernst’s unfavorable ratings and pushed polls back in Braley’s direction.

“He’s got the momentum. … It could still go either way but Braley has the edge right now,” said former Iowa GOP Speaker Brent Siegrist. “They’ve been beating her up a lot on the air.”

Ernst’s coffers were drained by her contested primary. Though GOP groups went on the air to help her, they focused mostly on beating up Braley, leaving the Republican undefined. Democrats have outspent them over the summer by roughly $2 million, painting Ernst as a Tea Party candidate and hammering her on issues from her opposition to a national minimum wage to her support for an anti-abortion “personhood” amendment. 

With her favorability rating underwater, three of the last four public surveys have had Braley up by a few points. Private polling from both parties also indicates the Democrat likely has a slim lead within the margin of error.

“Joni Ernst will win, but it’s going to be a very close race,” Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R), a big Ernst backer, told reporters while tailgating outside the University of Iowa-Iowa State University football game on Saturday. 

“It is going to be extremely competitive, we are running neck and neck,” Ernst told reporters of her own race. “But I can tell you as a southwest Iowa farmgirl from one of the most rural parts of the state that’s up against big-time incumbent Congressman Bruce Braley … I feel very good about where we are and where we’re going.”

Ernst has appeared on the defensive lately, especially over ads from Democratic groups featuring a comment she made during the primary suggesting she was open to Social Security privatization. In her newest ad, she says she cares “about protecting Social Security for seniors like my mom and dad.”

The Republican’s comments on Friday to the supportive Iowa Farm Bureau focused on clarifying her position on the Renewable Fuels Standard. Democrats have accused her of flip-flopping on the issue and attacked her for fundraising with oil companies. The Iowa Corn Growers Association has endorsed Braley, largely because of this issue, though some of the group’s members were at the Farm Bureau event.

“I do support RFS [Renewable Fuels Standard], I support biodiesel,” she said, flanked by yard-tall plastic replicas of corncobs and soybeans. “I guarantee I am going to be there fighting for you and Iowa agriculture, I just want to make that very clear.”

She acknowledged heavy spending had moved the polls, and begged for a boost to her campaign coffers heading into the homestretch. 

“I’ve been outspent by $2 million. What we have to do is start pushing back with our own advertisements,” she said, admitting that it was going to take “a lot of treasure from people” to win the race. 

After her Farm Bureau speech, members griped about the outsized advantage Democrats have had on the air. 

“The Republicans need to get better rebuttals. It’s time to get nasty. I mean, they got nasty out of the chute and it’s probably time for our side to get nasty too,” said Jim Greif, an Ernst backer and local leader in both the Corn Growers Association and Farm Bureau.

GOP outside groups seem to be getting the message. American Crossroads has been hitting Braley hard for missing votes on the Veterans Affairs scandal, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently went up with a positive spot for Ernst featuring Iowa Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey (R), a move seemingly designed to boost her positives following the Renewable Fuel Standard attacks.

Democrats privately admit that Braley lacks the populist charm of retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D). While Harkin was in his element working the crowds alongside Harkin Steak Fry keynoters Bill and Hillary Clinton this weekend, Braley can come across as stiff and awkward on the campaign trail. 

Braley’s campaign has been much more careful since a late spring shake-up that replaced the campaign’s pollster and ad-maker. More recent spots have focused on bloodying Ernst, and the positive ads are testimonials from people other than Braley speaking on his own behalf. 

He’s also kept a tighter schedule around the state. His only campaign appearance this weekend, just over 50 days from Election Day was his Sunday speech at the Harkin Steak Fry. 

Though Republicans hit him for the infrequent appearances, his allies believe the more disciplined campaign is what is moving the needle. 

Speaking before the official Steak Fry program began, Braley attacked Ernst as “a senator that embraces reckless Tea Party ideas that are bad for Iowa” while saying he was someone who could “work together to get things done” with Republicans.

“Joni Ernst is known for what she does to hogs,” Harkin said in his own speech, referring to her famed “hog castration” ad. “But I’ve got to tell you what scares me is what she wants to do to people,” he continued, saying he will be “thrilled” to “pass the torch” to Braley.

Republicans also privately concede that Democrats have a much better field operation in the Hawkeye State, though Branstad is expected to be able to provide some coattails with a big win. 

Republicans hope ad spending will narrow in the coming weeks, allowing Ernst to claw her way back into the lead. And Democrats nervously hope there are no more damaging Braley misfires. 

“If you look at what happened in the primary she was very heavily outspent … she’s going to be able to come close, maybe not spend as much money as Braley but it’s not just money, it’s also the individual and their stand on the issues and whether they’re in tune with Iowa,” Branstad said.