Democrat up in new Iowa Senate poll

Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) has a five-point lead over Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R), according to a new poll conducted by Loras College.

{mosads}Braley leads Ernst by 45 percent to 40 percent in the live-caller survey, the first time either candidate has had a lead outside the margin of error in months.

Ernst is actually better-known than Braley in the state following a bevy of attack ads against both candidates, according to the poll. The poll finds her approval rating at 37 percent with 40 percent disapproving, while Braley is at 36 percent approval and 34 percent disapproval.

The numbers are a reversal from when Loras last polled, around the time Ernst easily won her June primary. The poll found her up by 48 percent to 42 percent then.

One poll or pollster shouldn’t be trusted by itself, and Loras has shown more volatility than others in this election. Other recent polls have found a coin-flip race, with two points as the largest lead for either candidate in any poll since July.

But the survey suggests that the race has stabilized following some early missteps by Braley — and that he may have the edge heading into the homestretch.

The poll of 1200 likely voters, using cell phones and landlines, was conducted from Sept. 2-5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.