Carson overtakes Trump in Iowa poll

GOP presidential candidate Ben Carson has knocked Donald Trump off of the top spot in Iowa for the first time since July, according to a new poll. 

The Quinnipiac University Poll has Carson at 28 percent support, with Trump following at 20 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Last month, a Quinnipiac poll showed Trump on top by a 6 percent margin.

{mosads}Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, has a significant edge over the real estate magnate among women —one-third backed Carson, compared to just 13 percent for Trump. He also has double the support from evangelical Christians than Trump does, substantially more support with Tea Party voters, and a sky-high favorability of 84 percent, the best in the GOP candidates.

“It’s Ben Carson’s turn in the spotlight,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a statement released with the poll.

“As they’ve been pondering for six months, many in the political world still are trying to understand Carson’s appeal and how someone who seems to be operating outside the traditional news media/political environment is doing so well among the most conservative GOP voters.” 

Following Carson and Trump, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) is in third with 13 percent, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) with 10 percent. Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) finishes fifth with 6 percent, with former businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush tied with 5 percent.

The rest of the field polled under 3 percent, including 2008 Iowa caucus winner and former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.), and 2012 Iowa caucus winner and former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.).

Trump has led nationally — as well as in Iowa and New Hampshire — for more than three months, even after a late-August Monmouth University poll in Iowa showed Carson tied with Trump, a Fox News national poll taken in early October had Trump only 1 point ahead of Carson, and a late-September NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Trump ahead by 1 point nationally. 

In Thursday’s poll, Trump has the highest percentage of those who say they would definitely not support him, with 30 percent — up 5 percentage points from last month’s poll — while Bush follows with 21 percent.

The likely caucus-goers view Carson as sympathetic, as 84 percent believe he shares their values and 89 percent believe he cares about their problems. 

Trump bests the field as the candidate the respondents believe can best handle the economy, taxes and illegal immigration. Carson receives the highest mark for social issues, while Rubio and Trump are essentially tied on foreign policy. Bush leads on whose experience will lend itself best to the presidency.  

Quinnipiac polled 574 people between Oct. 14 and Oct. 20 with a margin of error of 4.1 percent.

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