Christie stumbles out of the gate

It wasn’t supposed to go like this for Chris Christie.

When 2012 nominee Mitt Romney passed on another run last week, national Republicans said the New Jersey governor was among the candidates to benefit the most from the shakeup in the GOP field.

{mosads}Newly empowered after a strong showing at the Iowa Freedom Summit and the launch of his leadership PAC, Christie headed to London on a trip designed to bolster his foreign policy credentials.

But after a week of questions over vaccinations, his lavish travel requests and a possible federal inquiry into his administration, the likely 2016 hopeful is firmly on the defensive.

“The trip and everything that happened probably couldn’t have come at a worse time for him,” said Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murray. “When Romney announced on Friday that he was out, there was a rush to shore up people who had been supporting him or who were sitting on the sidelines. [Former Florida Gov. Jeb] Bush was here for that. Christie was there.”

Positive headlines from his trip across the pond could have bolstered his foreign policy credentials. Instead, Christie stepped all over any momentum he was building when controversy exploded over remarks he made in London that parents should have more choice on whether to vaccinate their children.

“Even if he had a productive meeting with the prime minister, nobody is going to remember that,” said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “The measles comment dominated. It ends up being a lost opportunity for him.”

Adding insult to injury, while Christie was overseas an unflattering story ran in the New York Times about wealthy benefactors picking up the tab for expensive family trips and his posh demands when traveling.

Christie has sought to build an everyman, blue-collar image, but the story painted him as a man who uses his political connections to satiate his lavish tastes.

The bad news kept coming when late Thursday when ABC reported that federal investigators had launched a new criminal probe into whether Christie had fired a prosecutor for objecting to the dismissal of indictments against some Christie supporters.

The U.S. Attorney later denied the report, issuing a statement saying that “any characterization that we are investigating the governor about this is just not true. We talk to people all the time. It doesn’t mean we’re investigating anybody.” 

Christie’s office has denied any wrongdoing and has called the allegations “conspiratorial nonsense.”

“The U.S. attorney is casting a wide net and Christie is right in the middle of it,” Murray said. “The idea that there are potential investigations floating around that may ensnare him is incredibly harmful to his candidacy. He’s fighting right now for some of these donors that are also giving Bush, Walker and Rubio a look. Having this hanging over his head just makes him look like too much of a risk.”

Christie’s supporters were already skeptical of the latest report of a federal investigation. The primary source for the news was the whisteblower at the center of the five-year old controversy who has a longstanding beef with Christie.

“It doesn’t smell right,” said Bobbie Kilberg, a veteran GOP fundraiser and Christie supporter.

“Certainly I prefer not to have stories like that out there, but it doesn’t concern me about his long-term viability,” she said. “Chris will overcome this, he’ll be just fine.”

Indeed, if the investigations fail to turn up additional dirt, the result might be a net benefit for Christie. He could wear the federal probes as a badge of honor in the same way former Texas governor Rick Perry is framing his own federal indictment.

Christie supporters are also rolling their eyes at the talk of missed opportunities and early momentum swings. They argue that vaccines will be an afterthought when the Iowa caucuses roll around next year and that the early political horserace is a manufactured storyline that exists only inside Washington.

Mark Braden, Christie’s 2009 deputy campaign manager, bristled at a question about whether the governor’s early stumbles will impact his candidacy.

“At this point right now, the group of people paying attention are the donors and political operatives,” Braden said. “That’s a primary in its own right and an important one to win…but there’s so much time to regain any of the momentum that the chattering class may think that he’s lost.”

“Sometimes you have good weeks and sometimes you have bad weeks,” Kilberg added. “This is a marathon it’s not a sprint. I have great confidence in him if he decides to get into the race. He can win the nomination and he can win the election.”

Still, Christie has appeared flat-footed in response to Bush’s early moves into the field. The former Florida governor has accelerated the timeline for all of the potential contenders, raising the stakes when contenders are jockeying for favor among the political class.

Regardless, Christie supporters and neutral political observers all agree on how Christie can get his mojo back.

“He’s got to get back into his wheelhouse,” Murray said.

That’s in face-to-face interactions on the campaign trail where Christie charms supporters with his straight-talking style.

“He’s at his best when he’s out there being Chris Christie, whether that’s at a townhall meeting in Sioux City, at a diner in New Hampshire, or eating barbecue in South Carolina’s lowcountry,” said Braden.

“He’s the most natural politician I’ve seen since Ronald Reagan,” Kilberg added. “He relates exceptionally well with people. The strategy needs to be to get him out as widely as possible across the country, meeting as many people as he possibly can. That’s where he’ll shine.”

This post was updated on Monday, February 9 at 12:16 p.m.